Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 221712
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
112 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

High pressure will provide mostly sunny and mild weather, with
the possibility of our first 70 degree reading of the season on
Monday. Low pressure tracking south of Michigan on Tuesday will
bring clouds and a chance of light rain, followed by slightly
cooler weather for midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

A band of cirrostratus will tend to persist south of Holland,
Grand Rapids, and Lansing today. Expecting filtered sunshine for
most of the day in that area, which should still be enough for
highs to reach the lower to mid 60s. Relative humidity is already
falling to the 20s and 30s percent, promoting dry ground and
moderate fire danger today. Fortunately winds are fairly light,
though could gust 15 mph in southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Less in the way of high clouds expected today and Monday so
warmer high temperatures will occur. Combination of near full sun
and very dry conditions should lead to superadiabatic lapse rates
near the ground and highs exceeding guidance. Will have highs
today in the mid to upper 60s and highs Monday around 70. It is
possible some thicker cirrus will return to areas south of I-96
Monday afternoon. Last time we had highs at or above 70 was
October 22nd. Cooler temps expected at the lakeshore due to
afternoon lake breeze.

Upper low currently over the srn plains moves only slowly east
the next couple days then heads northeast into the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday. This system brings increasing clouds Monday night
followed by a chance of rain showers on Tuesday. Only light
amounts under one tenth of an inch are anticipated as the showers
pivoting around the north side of the upper low encounter the dry
air mass over MI.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

A few showers will linger into Tuesday night before fair weather
returns for midweek as a high pressure ridge builds in from the west
for Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will continue to
average rather close to normal for this time of year midweek.

A cold front will bring potential for showers late Thursday night
and Friday. A cooler airmass will advect in Friday into the weekend
when high temperatures will only reach the lower to perhaps middle
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

The main issue with the TAFs will be the variable wind conditions
this afternoon. We have already seen the surface winds...which
have been gusty at times...varying between northeast and
southeast for inland sites. That will likely continue for the
afternoon. Then along the lakeshore...a lake breeze was developing
near KMKG. This will have to battle the prevailing easterly winds
to make it further inland. It appears that the winds around KMKG
will remain rather light this afternoon and continue to be
variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Tranquil conditions expected on Lk MI as sfc ridging provides
light wind regime. Offshore winds at night and in the morning
should become onshore in the afternoon as lake breeze
circulations develop related to differential land/lake heating.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Elevated fire danger will exist today and Monday as fuels continue
to dry out. Minimum relative humidities in the teens are likely
today, and 25-35 pct on Monday. Wind speeds will be relatively
light, but east winds may reach 10-15 mph in the afternoon. Some
gusts to 20 mph will be possible at pk heating when deeper mixing
heights around 6000 ft are present, especially southern sections.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Lowland flooding near riverbanks will be ongoing over the next
several days as water from last weekend`s mixed precipitation event
moves through the river basins. Since no heavy rain events are
anticipated in the next week, rivers will gradually crest then
subside with only nuisance level impacts.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CAS
SYNOPSIS...Meade
SHORT TERM...Meade
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...MJS
FIRE WEATHER...Meade
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...Meade



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