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000
FXUS62 KGSP 240534
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
134 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Southeast Coast will give way to a weak cold
front moving down from the north.  The North Carolina mountains
mainly near the Tennessee border will see rain showers late tonight
and Wednesday.  The weak front will scarcely affect temperatures
through mid week and then the front may come back northward as a
warm front on Friday. After that, expect a warmup through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday: No major changes to the forecast as it
remains on track. Adjusted primary weather elements based on current
observations and latest trends. Otherwise, winds have diminished
with still mainly thin cirrus over the area. Guidance is in good
agreement that a short wave trough will swing across the Ohio Valley
tonight and into the central Appalachians Wednesday morning. An
attendant weak frontal boundary is also progged to push across the
area during the afternoon hours Wednesday. Ahead of this feature,
surface high pressure centered off the southeast coast will continue
to keep quiet conditions in place through tonight. The boundary
layer, however, will stay mixed overnight as the surface pressure
gradient increases with gusts returning to the higher elevations
before daybreak. This will allow for a rebound in overnight low
temperatures with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, which would be
10-15 degrees warmer compared to this morning. Cloud cover increases
during the early morning hours Wednesday with a band of showers
encroaching on the mountains from the west ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary. Showers will be likely across the mountains,
especially along the Tennessee border, during the morning. Coverage
farther east remains more uncertain as the better DPVA and forcing
will be displaced north of the area. With a lack of forcing and a
weak front, only isolated to scattered showers are anticipated east
of the mountains through the afternoon. High temperatures will
continue to rebound ahead of the front owing to influences from
compressional warming with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday: Mid level ridging and surface high pressure
will be in place across the area through the short range period
leading to typical spring conditions. A few showers will be possible
on Friday especially in the mountains as a system lifts northward
through the Plains states, but otherwise conditions should remain
dry. Amounts with this system will be very light.

Highs will be near normal on Thursday and then a little below normal
on Friday with more cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday: Mid level ridging will build across the region
for this weekend into early next week. The only chance of rain over
the weekend will be a few ridgetop showers in the higher elevations
of the mountains each afternoon. The next more general chance of
showers will be early next week.

Temperatures over the weekend will be near climo, then trending
above climo early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: No major adjustments needed for the 06Z
TAF update as the forecast remains on track. VFR conditions expected
at all terminals through the forecast period. Cirrus already moving
in ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect it to thicken through
the night with mid clouds then low VFR near or after daybreak. A
band of showers will move into the mountains with the front then
dissipate as they move east. Showers most likely to affect KAVL, but
only low VFR expected, so PROB30 there. Elsewhere chance too low for
TAF mention at this time. Winds remain SW overnight with diminishing
gusts this evening. Winds pick up from the WSW after daybreak then
turn NW after FROPA during the afternoon with low end gusts
possible. KAVL will see S wind becoming NNW toward daybreak, then
gusty NNW through the day.

Outlook: Dry weather returns Thursday into this weekend, but this is
subject to change as a warm front lifts north of the area by
Saturday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/RWH/TW
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...CAC/RWH