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000
FXHW60 PHFO 250147
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
347 PM HST Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to locally strong trade winds will continue through the
week, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas.
Trades look to ease slightly this weekend as high pressure weakens
to the north and low pressure develops to the far northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The latest satellite and radar imagery shows a long band of east
to west-oriented low clouds and showers embedded in the trade
wind flow moving into windward areas of the islands. The most
widespread showers are currently affecting Oahu through Maui. Some
showers are also making it over to leeward areas as well, due to
the breezy trades. Expect this band of enhanced showers to sag
southward overnight, bringing additional rainfall to windward
areas of all islands into Friday morning.

A high pressure system will continue to linger far northeast of
the island chain through Friday, producing breezy to locally windy
trades across state. Wind speeds may approach Wind Advisory
thresholds in some wind-favored locations over Maui and the Big
Island into Thursday, but keeping speeds just below advisory
levels for now. This high will drift farther east Friday into the
weekend, as a cut off low pressure system develops approximately
1000 miles northwest of Kauai. Global models continue to indicate
the cut off low will remain too far northwest of the state to
have much, if any, impact on the local island weather. However,
expect winds to veer from a more east to southeast direction and
decrease to more moderate speeds this weekend, with overall drier
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally windy trade winds will prevail for the next
several days as a surface ridge remains to the north of the
islands. Clouds and showers will continue to favor windward and
mauka areas, with isolated showers reaching leeward areas during
the overnight hours. Bands of moisture moving across the islands
will continue to bring local MVFR conditions to windward areas
this afternoon, with more widespread MVFR likely tonight.

AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains in effect for
windward sections of Oahu and Kauai this afternoon. Expect AIRMET
Sierra to expand to windward sections of the remaining islands
tonight.

AIRMET Tango for moderate low level turbulence downwind of the
terrain for all islands remains in effect, with little change
expected through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1030 mb surface high, located roughly 800 nm north northeast of
the state, will slowly drift eastward over the next several days.
This feature will help drive strong to locally near gale east
northeasterly trade winds across the islands. By Friday, the high
is forecast to weaken, as low pressure develops well northwest of
Hawaii. In response, easterly winds will weaken to light to
moderate. A Small Craft Advisory for all Hawaiian coastal waters
has been extended through Thursday. Beyond Thursday, this hazard
may need to be extended for some of the typical windier waters of
Maui County and the Big Island.

Surf heights will remain below advisory thresholds for all shores
through the forecast period. A small, medium period northwest
swell will fill in across the waters tonight and persist through
Friday. Another small, medium period northwest pulse will enter
the waters Friday night, peak Saturday, and subside Sunday. Expect
these swells to produce small surf along north and northwest
facing beaches. Persistent trades will bring choppy, rough surf
all week along east facing beaches. By this weekend, weakening
trades will allow this surf to lower. Small background southerly
swell will lead to small surf along south facing beaches through
the forecast period.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TS
AVIATION...Ahue
MARINE...Vaughan/JT