135
FXUS64 KHGX 300936
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
436 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Light winds, plenty of near-surface moisture, and mostly clear skies
are allowing for areas of fog and stratus early this morning. Latest
nighttime microphysics satellite imagery show a widespread deck of
stratus surging northward across the Coastal Bend/Matagorda area.
Further north, fog continues to develop, especially across our far
northern counties. With dewpoint depression values near 1-2 degrees;
expect fog developing and expanding in the next few hours. Fog and
stratus should gradually burn/lift through mid/late morning as
daytime boundary layer mixing occurs.

No significant weather impacts are expected today. Surface high
pressure centered to our east will continue to surge warm and humid
southerly flow across SE TX. Slightly warmer temperatures that
yesterday can be expected today with highs mainly into the mid to
upper 80s. Return surface flow and zonal flow aloft will bring
different impulses of energy that combines with diurnal heating will
be enough to produce isolated to scattered rain and storms. The best
chances will be south of I-10.

Stratus will make another surge north bringing back cloudy
conditions. There is also a potential for fog; however with
winds slightly stronger the coverage should be patchy.

Rain and storm chances continue on Wednesday thanks to daytime
heating, increasing PWs and weak mid-level shortwaves. A stronger
shortwave trough will move over the Plains by Wednesday, reaching
our western counties by late Wednesday night. This system will bring
the best potential for showers and storms during the short-term
period.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A series of mid to upper level disturbances along with mid level
vort maxes will continue to pass through Southeast TX during the
second half of the work week. Southeasterly flow will prevail
through much of the long term period and will continue to
transport pulses of low level moisture into the region. PWs can be
as high as 1.8 inches at times. With sufficient moisture and
instability in place, along with the mid to upper level
disturbances passing overhead, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop through the end of the work week. For the
weekend, NBM solution has less chances of rain with showers and
storms to be more isolated in nature.

By the start of the upcoming week, the global models indicate
drier conditions as mid level ridging builds over the region. A
consequence to this, would be warmer temperatures. We will have
temperatures warm a degree or two each day but staying in the 80s.
However, by early next week, we could begin to see the highs
reaching the upper 80s to low 90s and with dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s, it will feel fairly humid, in particular during
the morning hours.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Still VFR across the large majority of the area, except for
sporadic MVFR CIGs at LBX, and first bit of fog cropping up on the
Gulf Coast. Still expecting conditions to degrade across more of
the area, with MVFR to IFR CIGs and/or VSBYs overnight and early
in the morning. Some patchy LIFR CIGs may emerge as well.
Improvement through the morning, with VFR conditions returning for
the afternoon. Plan to do it all again in the IAH extended, with
MVFR CIGs coming back after sundown.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Seas will continue to subside today, however, small craft should
continue to exercise caution as seas diminish throughout the day.
Generally moderate onshore winds are expected to develop Wednesday
night and continue through much of the forecast period. This will
result in seas of 4 to 6 feet over the offshore waters and 2 to 5
feet over the nearshore waters. Also, strong rip currents could
occur across the Gulf facing beaches over the next few days.
Periods of showers and storms can be expected through Friday.

24

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Below are the rivers that continue to be above flood stage:

- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Liberty): Moderate Flood Stage, rising to Major
  Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Romayor): Action Flood Stage, rising to Minor
  Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor Flood Stage
- Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate Flood Stage, rising to Major Flood
  Stage
- Bedias Creek (Madisonville): Minor Flood Stage
- San Jacinto (New Caney): Action Flood Stage, rising to Moderate
  Flood Stage
- San Jacinto (Cleveland): Action Flood Stage, rising to Minor
  Flood Stage

24

Previous Discussion Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024:

5-10 inches with isolated totals of 10-12+ inches of rainfall have fallen
over the past 24 hours causing minor to major river flooding along the
Trinity River and its tributaries. Lake Livingston is showing inflows
of near 160,000 cfs and is currently releasing 98,400 cfs. Expected
impacts include extensive inundation of agricultural land, widespread
street flooding, and structure flooding along the lowest areas of the
Trinity River. Many impacts are already occurring upstream of Lake
Livingston and along tributaries. Additional impacts are expected to
worsen over the next 6-12 hours downstream of the lake and will persist
for several days.

Additional minor to moderate river flooding is expected along the E.F.
San Jacinto and Navasota Rivers. Primary impacts include street flooding
and isolated structure flooding. Rises to action stage are expected
across the majority of the San Jacinto and Brazos River basins. Most
impacts will occur within the next 24-48 hours, with some impacts lingering
into the end of the week.

Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the
new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood
threat continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  69  84  71 /  10  10  40  40
Houston (IAH)  86  71  84  73 /  10  10  40  30
Galveston (GLS)  80  72  80  74 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...24