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000
FXUS64 KHGX 140502
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Mid to upper level ridge axis has shifted to our east and
weakened/flattened a bit, allowing for a quasi-zonal flow. The
pattern aloft, along with southeasterly surface winds, is
resulting in warmer conditions this afternoon. Some weak
disturbances will continue to move along the ridge aloft; though
precipitation is not expected given strong subsidence (dry
airmass). Expect only passing mid to high clouds through late this
evening. As we head into the overnight hours, a LLJ will surge
Gulf moisture inland, resulting in increasing low to mid clouds
and a mild night with lows mainly in the 60s.

Ridging aloft strengthens again on Sunday, keeping the region dry
with temperatures near to slightly above normal. Several weak
disturbances embedded in the flow aloft will continue to move
overhead. Given a persistent dry layer at mid levels, only
scattered to broken mid to high clouds are expected. Highs will
climb into the mid 70s along the coast and into the low to mid 80s
inland. Lows into the upper 60s can be expected Sunday night into
Monday morning.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Pleasant weather should continue across SE Texas on Monday as
ridging remains in place aloft, bringing highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s. This ridge is expected to shift eastward during the
first half of the work week as an upper level trough fills in over
the SW CONUS/Plains. PWs are progged to reach 1.2-1.6" around
this time. Weak impulses and a 30-40 knot LLJ will provide some
support for storm development during the afternoon/evening hours
as these features move in from the west ahead of an approaching
cold front/dry line. However, robust capping around 925-850mb
still appears to largely suppress rain chances ahead of this
frontal boundary in SE Texas. Recent guidance also indicates a
slower progression of the boundary, with it stalling out near
portions of the Brazos Valley by Tuesday afternoon.

Capping looks to weaken in areas closer to this stalled boundary
on Tuesday, enough to potentially allow some scattered storms to
pass into the north/northwestern areas of our CWA. Rising
instability/shear and forcing from the aforementioned frontal
boundary could provide enough support for a few stronger storms to
develop in these locations on Tuesday, especially with support
from the LLJ still in place and PWs pooling to 1.6-2.0" ahead of
the boundary. The rest of SE Texas appears to be sufficiently
capped to suppress rain chances on Tuesday, allowing the warming
trend to continue into Wednesday. Highs will be in the 80s with
isolated locations breaking the 90 degree mark. Meanwhile,
overnight lows for mid-week will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The stalled boundary begins to lift north on Wednesday, while
weaker impulses pass over SE Texas. Even though PWs will still be
in the range of 1.0-1.7 inches, dry conditions in the mid-levels
of the atmosphere may evaporate any precipitation that does
develop aloft.

Long range guidance indicates that another upper level trough
will swing across the Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes on
Thursday. This system is progged to push a cold front through SE
Texas some time late Thursday into Friday with isolated
showers/storms possible along and ahead of the front. Cooler,
drier air will be slow to fill in behind the FROPA with Friday`s
highs progged to reach the 70s/lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Obs already beginning their annoying habit of teetering on the
MVFR/VFR edge. Plenty of SCT/BKNs around 030 that may have to be
amended based on how much/little cloud deck forms up at a given
terminal. Improvement to VFR later in the morning, while gusty
southeast winds return. Continue the cycle again tonight, with
MVFR CIGs higher confidence with another day of onshore flow
deepening moisture.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Increasing onshore winds and seas will warrant caution flags
across the waters into Sunday morning. The pressure gradient
relaxes slightly during the day on Sunday, bringing a short
reprieve from the elevated winds & seas. Onshore flow should
strengthen again on Monday, likely warranting Small Craft
Advisories Monday night into Tuesday morning as winds approach 15
to 25 knots and seas reach 5 to 8 feet. The gradient should weaken
Tuesday afternoon as a frontal boundary stalls out near the
Brazos Valley, allowing winds and seas to decrease overnight into
Wednesday. Caution flags could still be needed through mid week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  83  69  84 /   0   0  10  20
Houston (IAH)  68  82  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  69  76  70  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03