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000
FXUS64 KHGX 151034
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ridge axis slides off to the east today as an upper level low moves
over the Four Corners region. We`ll still feel the influence from
the departing ridge with a robust and deep subsidence inversion
layer aloft from ~900-750mb persisting that`ll prevent anything
other than clouds from developing. Southwesterly flow aloft does
become established today, but don`t expect that to be of any note
today...it`ll be a bit of a different story on Tuesday. With surface
low pressure deepening in the Central Plains today, we`ll see a
fairly strong LLJ begin to develop across the Brazos Valley this
afternoon. By tonight, this LLJ will strengthen up to 35-45 knots,
so expect winds to increase later today and linger into the
overnight hours as stronger winds aloft mix to the surface. Cloud
cover will stick around through both the daytime and nighttime
hours, but we`ll still manage to reach the low 80s this afternoon.
Temperatures tonight will bottom out in the upper 60s/low 70s.

On Tuesday, a cold front will approach the region from the west in
association with the previously mentioned surface low...but don`t
get too excited. This front will stall out to our west, but it will
cause a surge in moisture due to convergence along the frontal
boundary. This will lead to PW values climbing to the 1.5"-1.9"
range by Tuesday. Combine that with PVA from the southwesterly flow
aloft and a frontal boundary knocking at the door, and we have a
slight chance of showers/storms for portions of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods. It appears that we`ll catch the tail end of a
broken line of storms and the coverage of these looks to be spotty
at best. With the lack of large scale ascent, the severe threat has
been downgraded and now we are no longer in a marginal risk for
Tuesday. Areas around and south of I-10 are expected to remain dry
on Tuesday. As far as temperatures go, prefrontal heating will allow
daytime temperatures to reach the low to mid 80s. Lingering cloud
cover overnight combined with dew points surging into the low 70s
means low temperatures in the low 70s. We may have to monitor for
record high minimum temperatures as it should be a fairly close call!

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

This long term period still looks warm with steadily increasing humidities
and a gradual return of rain chances. Through Saturday, we`ll generally
have lows in the 60s/70s and highs in the 80s (a few spots on Thursday
and especially on Friday could have a high of 90 degrees). The forecast
now keeps the cold front out of the area until the Saturday afternoon-
Sunday morning time period, and this is the boundary that does cool
the area back down on Saturday night (lows in the 50s north and 60s
central/south) and Sunday (highs in the 70s). As for rain, low chances
are back in the forecast starting Thursday afternoon up north with better
chances coming over the weekend with the approach/passage of the cold
front. Cannot totally rule out any activity developing outside these
periods in association with any passing strong shortwaves in the west
to southwest flow aloft.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

MVFR ceilings will persist throughout the day along with breezy
southeasterly winds sustained around 15 knots with gusts up to 25
knots at times. There may be a brief window in the afternoon hours
where ceilings bounce between VFR/MVFR, but widespread MVFR
ceilings push in again going into tonight. Model guidance is
showing some ceilings reaching IFR territory, but winds may be too
elevated overnight for ceilings to drop that low. Another round
of breezy southerly/southeasterly winds is in store for Tuesday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Moderate south to southeast winds will persist into the middle of the
week with winds and seas occasionally requiring caution or advisory
flags, especially at times on Monday and Tuesday. Lowering onshore
winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday night.

42

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Due to the rainfall from the previous week and its subsequent
runoff, a couple of River Flood Warnings remain in effect as of
early Monday morning. The Navasota River at Normangee (NGET2) has
already crested but will remain in minor flood stage through early
Tuesday morning. The Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2) will remain
in minor flood stage until further notice. There are also multiple
other gauges that have crested into action stage along the Brazos
and Trinity Rivers.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  69  83  72 /   0  10  20   0
Houston (IAH)  82  71  85  73 /   0   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  77  71  78  71 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42