Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 232000
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
100 PM PDT Sat Mar 23 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1.A storm system will continue to impact Central California
through Sunday night bringing periods of light to moderate
rainfall to the San Joaquin Valley and moderate to heavy
snowfall in the Sierra Nevada.

2.Stronger winds are expected in the Mojave Slopes and Kern
County Desert through Sunday night. Sustained west winds of 30
to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph are anticipated.

3.There is a 10-30 percent chance for thunderstorms this
afternoon in the San Joaquin Valley.

4.A second storm system will impact the area by the middle of
next week, beginning on Wednesday, followed by a third storm
system coming through on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A frontal system embedded in a upper level trough passed over
the area this morning, leading to rainfall and snowfall for the
region. This system has brought in moisture and instability
caused by afternoon heat may produce some thunderstorms this
afternoon (there is a 10-30% chance for thunderstorms today).
The front will also lead to strong winds on the Mojave Slopes
and higher Kern Desert today through tomorrow night. This system
will also lead to a marked fall in high temperatures today
relative to yesterday; a fall in high temperatures of around
10-15 degrees for the whole region. This cooling trend is
expected to continue through tomorrow as more precipitation
comes through our CWA, with the valley in the low 60`s and high
50`s in some locations by tomorrow.

Here are the current probabilities for additional snowfall of 8
inches or more in select locations in the Sierra Nevada through
Tuesday:

Crane Flat: 89%Badger Pass: 85%
Lodgepole: 70%Huntington Lake: 68%
Mount Pinos: 63% Wishon Lake: 54%
Shaver Lake: 44%Yosemite Valley: 30%

A warming trend is expected to begin Monday through Wednesday
with the valley returning to the low 70`s as a the trough moves
to the east and a small ridge builds over the west coast. This
ridge is expected to be short-lived as another trough brushes
northern California, leading to chances for precipitation mostly
to the north of Tulare County (30-50% chance for 0.01 inches
north of Tulare County, 10-25% chance of 0.01 inches south of
Fresno County on Wednesday). Then, medium range ensemble models
are showing a second, stronger trough is expected to pass
through, leading to more wide-spread precipitation chances for
the whole area (40-60% chance for a tenth of an inch on Friday).

&&


.AVIATION...
There is a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon to
evening from 21Z Sat until 03Z Sun, mainly north of KBFL.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  03/22/2024 14:08
EXPIRES: 03/23/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ337>339.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ323-326>331.
&&

$$

Public/Aviation/Fire Weather......EW
IDSS/PIO..........................JEB

weather.gov/hanford


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