Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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824 FXUS63 KICT 050444 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1144 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances for rain/embedded thunderstorms over far southern and southeast Kansas later tonight through Sunday. - Severe weather outbreak potential Monday afternoon-night. - Overall fairly quiet weather expected after Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Rain with embedded thunderstorm chances will increase from the southwest later tonight, and persist through Sunday, mainly over far southern and southeast Kansas, as an upper trough traverses the Southern Plains. Model trends have continued to shift these rain chances a bit further south each run. The latest HREF consensus keeps the greatest threat for heavy rainfall from near the KS/OK border of far southeast KS on south into OK. The severe weather threat looks minimal over Kansas given poor lapse rates and marginal instability, Our attention then turns to the potential for scattered to numerous thunderstorms Monday afternoon-night across the region, as a potent/deep shortwave trough and attendant dryline approach from the west, amidst an increasingly moist/unstable airmass across the Central and Southern Plains. The anomalous combination of buoyancy/shear (as highlighted by the NAEFS and EPS) favors severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce "higher-end" severe weather in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Latest model trends support the greatest threat for discrete supercells (and associated greater threat for higher-end severe weather) across mainly the southern half of KS and into OK, where mid-upper flow is oriented more perpendicular to the dryline. A handful of NAM-GFS-ECMWF point forecast soundings up and down the dryline from mainly the southern half of KS south into OK continue to indicate a potential kinematic and thermodynamic environment similar to some past higher-end and even historic severe weather and tornado events. Further north across mainly the northern half of KS and into NE, storm mode could be rather messy given stronger forcing, and a more meridional component to mid-upper flow, which could tend to limit higher-end severe potential with northward extent. We will continue to monitor these trends in the upper jet placement and alignment. A another piece of uncertainty in the forecast surrounds the extent of warm/moist sector low clouds throughout the day, owing to rapid low-level quality moisture return. Too much moisture advection would tend to keep low clouds locked in through the day, which would limit insolation and associated peak heating destabilization, especially with northward extent. This scenario is especially highlighted by the NAM and RAP. Not enough instability would temper higher-end severe chances and/or keep these chances further south. All-in-all, there remains potential for higher-end severe weather across the region Monday afternoon-night in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. We will continue to diagnose the above uncertainty and issue timely forecast updates. After Monday night, the large-scale synoptic pattern favors mostly quiet and dry weather across the Kansas region through at least the end of next week, with a gradual slight cooling trend through the week. Wednesday afternoon-evening could be interesting severe thunderstorm-wise over extreme southeast Kansas, but latest model trends have pushed the greatest threat further east-southeast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected to start out this TAF period. By 09Z to 11Z this morning. MVFR and possibly IFR conditions are expected to encroach on the region. KICT, KHUT and KCNU are the most likely terminals to see the lower flight categories. KHUT is the least likely of the three. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible but at this time, feel KHUT and KICT will not see any precipitation so kept it out of the TAF for this cycle. KCNU on the other hand now appears to have a good chance for showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours. Rain and thunder at KCNU is expected to come to an end by 18Z to 20Z this afternoon. After the rain stops, MVFR CIGs are expected to continue through the rest of the TAF period. KSLN, KRSL and KGBD are likely to become overcast but should remain VFR for this TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ELM