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000
FXUS63 KIWX 180517
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
117 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry tonight and cooler.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Thursday evening, ending
  before sunrise Friday.

- Dry but cool this weekend with the opportunity for morning
  frost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The severe weather risk has ended as thunderstorms along the cold
front have moved east.

Temperatures have fallen into the low 60s and will remain there
through the remainder of the day. Because wind is from the
southwest or west, temperatures haven`t crashed like a
traditional cold front. Gusty wind subsides after sunset as the
surface low exits the Great Lakes. Seasonably cooler tonight
with lows in the upper 40s before warm air advection returns
Thursday afternoon. This, as a low develops over Missouri and
slides east through the day. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms begins near sunset Thursday and ends by daybreak
Friday. Locally, a marginal risk for severe storms is noted
along our border with Indianapolis. Aloft, we`ll be on the nose
the 850mb jet and the warm front will linger in this area as
well. Instability is forecast to be poor while bulk shear will
be modest at around 30 knots. Therefore, not overly impressed
but do confirm the marginal risk there.

Dry and cool this weekend, but not too horrible weather-wise. Cold
mornings, however, as frost will be a concern both Saturday night
and Sunday night. Confidence is medium-high in frost, with lows near
34 and light wind. This cool trough aloft moves east by Monday,
allowing temperatures to warm back toward 60 degrees. A
disturbance moves through the upper-Midwest Tuesday providing
our next rain chance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing at both TAF sites as ceilings
continue to climb overnight. By 10Z at both terminals, ceilings
should be at or above 5-6 kft and will keep rising throughout
the day as clouds dissipate for the first part of the day on
Thursday. Winds will continue to diminish in the next few hours,
although a few gusts up to 15-20 kts are not out of the question
before daybreak. As a cold front approaches Thursday evening,
ceilings will quickly drop to MVFR and even approach IFR by the
time rain/storms start after 00Z Friday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will persist through the end of the TAF cycle and
into early Friday morning.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson