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000
FXUS62 KJAX 210051
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
851 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New UPDATE...
...LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE
TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Convective debris clouds continue to push through the near zonal
flow aloft leading to bouts of clouds across the region tonight.
Based on current trends upstream, PoPs have been lowered through
the rest of the night. That said, a few vort ribbons moving
through the flow aloft may trigger isolated light showers through
about midnight in SE GA north of Waycross but more likely
conditions stay dry (pops generally < 25%).

A stalling frontal zone to the north will promote another night
of west to southwesterly flow, which will advect a low stratus
deck from the Big Bend across NE FL tonight and may lead to areas
of low visibility where winds trend calm, mainly along the
Suwannee River Valley/I-75 corridor late tonight and early Sunday
(4-7am). Low stratus and patchy fog could push all the way to the
I-95 corridor and western areas of Jacksonville; however, a
persistent offshore winds should prevent dense fog development.
Lows will be on the mild side with readings in the spanning the
low/mid 60s inland while coastal locations read in the upper 60s
to near 70.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Isolated to scattered convection is possible for this afternoon
and evening with developments most likely to occur over inland
southeast Georgia, with a potential for isolated strong storms
forming in the vicinity of areas north of the Douglas-Alma-Jesup
line as weak embedded short waves passing ahead of the advancing
cold front up to the north. Early morning patchy fog is possible
on Sunday primarily over northeast Florida with areas to the west
of the I-95 corridor. High temperatures today will reach up into
the upper 80s and lower 90s throughout the forecast area with
overnight low temperatures dropping down into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A cold front drapes itself across the GA/FL border Sunday morning
and pushes its way south through the region by Monday. Rain
showers and embedded thunderstorm chances of 20 to 30 percent
begin in SE GA and will spread south into NE FL with chances
increasing in the afternoon and evening region wide. Temperatures
will get into the mid to upper 80s for NE FL ahead of the front
while SE GA temperatures will be cooler in the mid 70s to 80s
behind the front. Temperatures Monday will be significantly
cooler with the frontal passage with highs in the mid to upper 60s
for most of the region and some areas to the south hanging in in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

High pressure fills in behind the cold front, bringing drier
conditions and sunny to mostly sunny skies to the region. The
models show another cold front coming through late Wednesday
night/ Thursday morning but conditions look to be too dry to
produce any precipitation at this time. Temperatures will warm
throughout the week, getting back into the low to mid 80s by
Wednesday and the mid to upper 80s by Friday and Saturday inland
with temperatures cooler along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 803 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conds prevail with mostly WSW at or below 10 knots west of
I-95 and SSE for sites east of I-95 where the sea breeze has
pushed inland. Winds will trend light with VFR conditions for most
of the night for airfields along the I-95 corridor.

Another push of low stratus will advect west to east from the Big
Bend again and is more likely to push further east tonight,
reaching KJAX around sunrise Sunday. LIFR ceilings are likely at
KGNV beginning around 06/07z and lingering through 13z. Winds are
unlikely to trend calm and this should limit significant fog
development, except at the more notoriously foggy locations (KVQQ)
where LIFR fog cannot be ruled out.

Conds improve to VFR with increasing SW winds through the morning
ahead of a cold front. Moist, unstable air will support shower
and t`storm development during the late afternoon Sunday.
Refinements to the convective periods will be needed in
subsequent forecast packages as confidence is gained.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Southerly sea breeze winds this afternoon and evening will turn to
become offshore later tonight. Cold front will begin to enter the
area waters Sunday and then shift well south of the area Monday.
Small craft advisory conditions may begin as early as Sunday night
as northerly winds increase. SCA looks probable for Monday til
Tuesday, with winds dropping of during the day on Tuesday, though
seas will remain elevated. Winds and seas continue to be diminish
by Wednesday as high pressure ridge will dominate the area by
then.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate risk is placed in for northeast
FL with swells of about 2 ft with periods about 10 seconds. Lower
end risk for southeast GA beaches for today. Somewhat lower risk
appears in place for Sunday given mostly an offshore wind and
smaller swell heights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  65  79  53 /  30  20  80  40
SSI  86  67  83  56 /  20  10  60  60
JAX  92  66  87  57 /  10   0  50  70
SGJ  90  66  89  60 /  10   0  30  70
GNV  90  63  85  59 /  10   0  30  50
OCF  89  62  84  62 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$