961
FXUS63 KJKL 032140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
540 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm potential returns to the forecast
  through the next 7 days.

- Cooler than in recent days, but temperatures are forecast to be
  above normal through the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 332 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024

An active pattern remains across the Bluegrass State through the
short term. Large upper low/trough configuration remains over the
far northern US and south-central Canada with an active jet stream
from the Central Plains to Upper Great Lakes region. Meanwhile,
upper ridging remains persistent along the East Coast, and will
begin to move offshore Saturday night as the aforementioned upper
low begins to move northeast toward eastern Canada at that time.
This leaves eastern Kentucky under the influence of a moist and
active regime with periodic shortwave disturbances moving across the
region through Saturday evening.

Currently a disturbance is beginning to exit to the east this
afternoon, but will be followed by another tonight into Saturday
morning that will bring another round of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms. Models suggest low-level instability is somewhat
lacking but there is sufficient elevated instability to warrant a
few claps of thunder from time to time, especially west of I-75. Fog
formation overnight will be dependent on any lulls in precipitation
as well as any potential partial clearing. Lows tonight will range
from the mid-50s in the cooler sheltered valleys to lower 60s
elsewhere.

Another disturbance appears to be well-timed with any daytime
heating to help produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms
Saturday. Given high PoPs and cloud cover through the day
temperatures will struggle to reach the current forecast highs of
upper 70s.

PoPs gradually lower through Saturday evening through the overnight
as a trailing shortwave crosses the area with shortwave ridging
building in from the southwest after midnight. Sky cover will likely
trend downward but this would likely then promote fairly widespread
fog formation late Saturday night into Sunday morning, especially in
the river valleys. Expect forecast lows Saturday night similar to
tonight`s forecast, with mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 540 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024

The models generally agree on a fairly stagnant long wave pattern
across the CONUS through the majority of next week. A seasonably
strong 500 mb low pressure system will start out over the West
Coast early Sunday morning, before swinging east, residing over
the northern Rockies/northern High Plains by early Tuesday. This
feature will then elongate and gradually dampen with time as it
moves over the Upper Midwest, with a broad positively tilted
trough aligning from the Great Lakes back through the Desert
Southwest. This will keep west to west southwest flow across the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys aloft, with several progressive short
wave troughs to move through the region at times. At the surface,
a quasi-stationary front will be aligned just north of the area
through early next week, before a cold front approaches by the end
of the next work week.

This will all result in unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky
through the long term forecast, with daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Have generally stayed a bit below the blended
guidance on PoPs for the days where the overall forcing is weaker
and/or less certain, as it is known to overdo more diurnally
influenced convection. At this time, rain chances look to peak on
Monday (80-90%), and then again on Thursday (70-80%), with better
forcing at play. The rest of the period will feature chance PoPs
(30-60%). Temperatures will average 5-10 degrees above normal,
with lows mainly in the lower 60s, while highs range from the
upper 70s to lower 80s most days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024

Periodic rain showers will continue through much of the period,
though nailing down timing at any one TAF location is difficult.
Models seem to be slower in bringing sufficient instability for
VCTS mention into the region this afternoon, so pared back any
mention to primarily KLOZ and KSME. Once the sun goes down, the
storms should become more isolated with time with rain showers
being the dominant precipitation mode. Any storm could produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, along with brief periods
of MVFR or IFR VSBYs. MVFR CIGs will also be possible at times
today into this evening during peak shower/thunderstorm activity.
If shower activity tapers sufficiently overnight will likely see
at least some fog develop at some if not all terminals, even
moreso if there is any partial clearing.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMC