055
FXUS63 KLBF 081714
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1214 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain, showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the
  forecast tonight and Thursday. The risk of strong or severe
  thunderstorms is very low.

- Thunderstorms are possible late this weekend, Monday and
  Tuesday. Winds aloft are expected remain weak through Sunday.
  A increase in speeds is possible Monday. Thus, the risk of
  strong or severe storms this weekend is low and uncertain
  Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The upper low circulating across the nrn Rockies this morning will
drop south and split into two circulations over the next few days.
One low will be across the Midwest and a second back west across the
Great Basin. The Great Basin low will moving east through Colo and
KS this weekend.

The portion of the upper low heading for the Midwest will move
through Nebraska tonight and Thursday producing scattered showers
and periods of light rain. Winds aloft will be very weak as the
upper low moves overhead, less than 20kts at h500mb, and this will
negate any sort of organized thunderstorm development. The weak
winds aloft, CAPE of a few hundred J/KG and K-indices in the lower
30s all suggest ordinary thunderstorms, if any, and the best chance
for this will be during the daylight hours late this afternoon and
Thursday.

POPs get a slight boost to line up with the, perhaps ambitious, WPC
QPF coverage. Amounts will be light, less than 1/4 inch in most
areas and this is certainly in line with PWAT less than 1.0 inch.
It`s worth noting there little or no theta-e advection or FGEN. The
modest 850-700mb moisture transport from the north and east is
primary mechanism for rain.

The temperature forecast uses the short term model blend plus bias
correction for highs in the 50s and 60s today and Thursday. It is
cooler than the NBM 50th both days. The guidance blend is warm like
the NBM today but latches on to the expected rain processes Thursday
which will hold down highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Although gradual warming is likely, temperatures aloft at h700mb
remain below 0C until Saturday. The warming Friday through
Tuesday is steady reaching a target of 5C by Tuesday. The models
are in good agreement with this feature.

Similarly, the upper low across the Great Basin will move east and
present a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across srn
Nebraska from late Saturday through Tuesday-the upper low is moving
that slowly. In fact, the models suggest a nrn stream disturbance
will drop south and intercept the srn stream disturbance forming a
large upper low or broad trof across the Midwest later next week.

The result is a somewhat unsettled weather pattern and in many
areas, temperatures may not reach 80F in the extended forecast.
Tuesday would be the best opportunity for this with the 5C h700mb
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions prevail through a majority of the period across
western and north central Nebraska. Scattered rain showers will
be possible across northwest and north central Nebraska,
including KVTN. Confidence remains too low on specific impacts
to the terminal at this time, thus will use VCSH for a period
this afternoon into the evening. Winds will continue out of the
north and northwest through the period with gusts 20 to 30kts
across southwest and south central Nebraska through sunset,
other locations remaining at 12kts or less. Ceilings will begin
to low to MVFR/IFR across northwest and northern Nebraska early
Thursday morning, impacting KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Viken