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000
FXUS65 KLKN 242039
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
139 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Active weather will continue through Friday as a low
pressure trough impacts the region. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with more
of the same for Thursday, particularly for northeastern Nevada.
Snow melt related flooding and elevated stream flows will continue
through the weekend across portions of the Humboldt River and
northern Elko county. Drier conditions return for the weekend with
lingering cloud cover and light shower activity across the
northern Tier of the state early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night.

Moisture convergence along a near-stationary boundary along with
daytime heating and increasing instability will lead to increasing
shower and thunderstorm develop into the early evening hours
across portions of central and northern Nevada. Small hail, cloud
to ground lightning and brief gusty winds will be the primary
threat. A conditionally unstable atmosphere will linger into the
overnight hours across much of the area leading to non-trivial
lightning potential into Thursday morning. Lows tonight will be
quite mild in the lower 40s.

An upper-trough will pivot through the Southwest U.S. allowing
an overall northwest flow to commence Thursday across Nevada. This
will drag a cold front across the state lowering temperatures by
several degrees with highs in the lower to mid-60s. In addition,
showers and thunderstorms will develop once again across much of
eastern and northeastern Nevada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-20
mph will develop as well. Total precipitation through THursday
night will range from one quarter inch to more than half an inch
in some higher mountain range locations. Snow levels will begin to
drop Thursday as colder air moves into the region. However,
impacts from snow will remain above 7500 feet through Thursday
night.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday

Models continue to show a strong northern stream upper trough on
track for Friday into Saturday bringing widespread showers and
thunderstorms across Nevada. However there is a change early in
the week, as the system that was to move through Monday now looks
to follow a more northern track and affect Idaho and Montana and
just miss northern NV. So the break in the active pattern
beginning Sunday will last through Wednesday. the active pattern
does look to continue with another northern stream upper trough
that will be poised off the Pacific NW just outside of this
forecast period on Thursday. Precipitation chances Friday and
Saturday will peak at near 100% Friday, then dropping to a 30% to
40% of scattered showers and storms Saturday as the upper low
moves overhead, Sunday through Wednesday precipitation chances
drop to less that 10%, with the best chances across far northern
NV as storm track shifts north. Snow levels for the weekend look
to range around 7000 ft to 8000 ft and look to remain in this
range, as these systems have a more Pacific trajectory and don’t
have much cold air to work with. Look for a mix of rain and
thunderstorms for the valleys and passes, with snow for the
mountain ranges. Storm total accumulations for Friday and Saturday
still looks to be decent, with QPF amounts of 0.25” to 1.25”+ of
rainfall for the valleys and passes, with the heaviest amounts
across the eastern half of NV. Snow wise the mountain ranges above
8000 feet could see up to 12-18” inches of new snow. Temperatures
and Winds: Give the active weather pattern temperatures will be
cooling through Sunday with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
Highs will warm for the start of the work week with highs
returning into the low 60s to low 70s by Wednesday. Lows will
follow suite ranging in the upper 20s to upper 30s through Sunday
morning. Lows then slowly warm into the upper 30s to upper 40s by
Wednesday morning. Winds shifting Friday out of the W to NW
direction through Monday at speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up
to 30 MPH possible. Winds shift back to the west Tuesday and
Wednesday at speeds of 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through Thursday but conditions will vary as upper level trough
moves overhead. VCTS with -SHRA will be possible for all terminals
today and Thursday, stronger cells could briefly drop conditions
to MVFR to even IFR levels should they impact a terminal. Winds
will be breezy this afternoon with Variable W to NW winds at
speeds of 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT possible.

KWMC is AMD NOT SKED due to communication disruption.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across many streams, creeks,
and rivers across northern and central Nevada due to snow melt.
Active weather including valley and mid-elevation rain showers
are expected thru at least Friday. Wetting rains are expected and
awareness should be exercised for sharp rises in faster
responding streams and creeks under prolonged or heavier rain
showers, especially with flows running high due to seasonal snow
melt. Cooler temperatures are also expected the next few days,
including freezing temperatures at night, which will likely slow
high elevation snow melt.

The Bruneau River is currently in action stage The river will
likely rise further in the coming days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action
stage and is expected to continue to reside in action stage for
the next several days.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river is forecast
to reach minor flood stage by this weekend.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is currently in minor flood
stage. The river is forecast to remain in minor flood stage over
the next several days.

Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to
continue to reside in action stage for the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus is currently in action stage and is
expected to continue to reside in action stage for the next
several days.

Mary`s River near Deeth continues to steadily rise and may reach
Acton stage sometime Friday.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

93/98/98