526
FXUS63 KLMK 111834
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
234 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Beautiful Sunday. Plenty of sunshine, cool in the morning and
    warm in the afternoon.

*   Active pattern next week with almost daily chances of showers
    and storms Monday through Friday. Best chance for a dry day will
    be Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Severe weather is not
    expected through at least Thursday. Strong storm chances may
    increase slightly by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A sfc cold front is pushing into eastern KY this afternoon, with
some agitated cu noted along the I-75 corridor south of Richmond.
Cannot rule out a very brief shower or two from roughly Berea south
into the Lake Cumberland region this afternoon, but most will stay
dry. Skies are mostly sunny, except for the SCT-BKN clouds along the
front. Those clouds will also thin out by late afternoon. Expect
breezy northwesterly winds through sunset with temperatures topping
out in the low to mid 70s.

The forecast for tonight and Mother`s Day looks very pleasant. Upper
level shortwave ridging builds overhead as sfc high pressure drifts
east across the South. Expect mainly clear skies and light winds
with Sunday morning lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures
are forecast to warm into the 75-80 degree range Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Sunday Night through Wednesday Night...

Mid-level ridge axis will pass through the region Sunday night keep
the area dry though clouds will increase through the night.
Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 50s.  For Monday through
Wednesday, an upper level trough axis will push eastward from the
Plains and will likely close off as it pushes through the Ohio
Valley.  As the low closes off, the forward speed of the trough axis
will slow, which will allow Gulf moisture to infiltrate the region.
Area averaged model soundings show between 1.25 and 1.5 inch PWATs
across the region for Monday and Tuesday.  Soundings for Monday do
not contain or indicate much instability or shear.  Though, Tuesday
may have a little more instability to work with.  The convective
character looks to be rain showers with some scattered storms being
possible. The main weather hazard here would be locally heavy
rainfall given the high PWAT values.  Depending on instability, some
gusty winds could occur with the showers/storms on Tuesday. Activity
should decrease from west to east late Tuesday and into early
Wednesday with somewhat drier conditions for our local area by
Wednesday afternoon.

Highs Monday look to warm into the mid-upper 70s across our
northeast sections.  Clouds look to keep temps down across our
southwest areas with lower 70s for highs.  Highs on Tuesday will be
in the lower-mid 70s with overnight lows around 60.  Depending on
partial clearing for Wednesday afternoon, highs look to top out in
the mid 70s, but those could be underdone if clouds break up
quicker.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the lower 50s in the
valleys with mid-upper 50s on the ridges.

Thursday through Saturday...

We should continue to see a brief drier period continuing from
Wednesday night into the day on Thursday as mid-level ridging will
be in the area.  Our next weather maker looks to arrive late
Thursday night and into Friday as a system ejects out of the Plains.
Depending on the timing of the weather feature for Friday, there may
be a little more shear/instability to work with here for at least a
risk of strong storms.  However, the signal here is not clear on
that, but there is strong agreement with at least high PoPs for
Friday and into Friday night with drier weather returning for
Saturday.

Highs on during the period will be in the upper 70s to the very low
80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast period. A cold front
is dropping southeast through Kentucky this afternoon and could help
generate a few showers in the I-75 corridor this afternoon. At this
point, RGA would have the best chance (20%) at seeing a brief shower
but confidence is low. Coverage will be pretty limited.

VFR cumulus continues to clear off to the southeast this afternoon
with mainly clear skies overnight. Winds are veering northwesterly
in the wake of the cold front, and expect gusts of 20-25 kt through
22-23Z. Winds diminish tonight as the low levels decouple and high
pressure slides slowly eastward across TN.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...EBW