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000
FXUS66 KLOX 152128
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
228 PM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...15/225 PM.

Dry and warmer conditions will prevail across the region
this week and through the weekend. Low clouds and fog should also
affect portions of the coast and valleys during the night and
morning hours through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...15/222 PM.

Stratocu lingered over portions of interior SLO/SBA Counties
early this afternoon. Otherwise skies were mostly sunny for most
areas. Little change is expected the rest of the afternoon altho
there will be some hi clouds moving over the area at times.
Offshore pressure gradient trends to the E and especially N
continued early this afternoon, bringing some gusty NW to N winds
for the foothills and mtns which should continue thru the rest of
the day. Along the coast, winds should turn breezy to gusty
onshore this afternoon.

Temps this afternoon will turn quite a bit warmer than yesterday
as more sunshine combined with rising H5 heights, thicknesses and
boundary layer temps will result in an increase from about 10-20
deg below normal yesterday to about 5-10 deg below normal today.
Afternoon max temps from the inland coast to the vlys and lower
mtns are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

An upper level ridge will gradually build into the forecast area
tonight through Wed, with H5 heights topping out around 581-582
dam on Wed. Weak upper level troffiness should then approach from
the E Pac Wed night and Thu with lowering H5 heights.

Low clouds are expected to move into the SLO/SBA County interior
areas from the southern San Joaquin Vly tonight into Tue morning.
Low clouds should also develop along portions of the Central Coast
and L.A. County coast into the southern San Gabriel Vly tonight
into Tue morning. Night and morning low clouds are expected to
expand along the coast from Tue night thru Thu morning, extending
into the adjacent vlys by Thu. The clouds are likely going to
persist for many coastal areas Thu afternoon. Otherwise, mostly
clear skies can be expected during the period except for varying
amounts of hi clouds at times Wed afternoon thru Thu morning.

There will be some offshore pressure gradients to the N and E
thru Tue then turn gradually more onshore thru Thu. Breezy to
locally gusty offshore winds can be expected mainly night and
morning hours thru Wed especially for the foothills, mtns and
interior SLO/SBA Counties. Breezy onshore flow can be expected
each afternoon especially for the coast and vlys, altho should
turn more gusty Thu afternoon in all areas.

Temps will be several degrees above normal each day except
turning cooler than normal for the coast and some adjacent vlys by
Thu. Wed looks to be the warmest day overall across the region
this week. Highs on Wed should be in the 70s to lower 80s for most
inland coast, vlys and lower mtns.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...15/224 PM.

Weak upper level troffiness is forecast to be over the area Fri,
then upper level ridging should move in Sat and Sun before an
upper level trof approaches from the E Pac on Mon. Dry weather
will continue thru the extended period. The marine layer pattern
will continue with varying amounts of night and morning low clouds
and fog along the coast extending into the vlys, altho should
remain near the coast Sat night into Sun morning.

Temps on Fri are forecast to be a few degrees below normal for
the coast and vlys with above normal temps elsewhere. There should
be a warming trend Sat and Sun, with Sun being the warmest day
during the extended period. With the marine layer expected to
deepen by Mon, temps will cool back to several degrees below
normal for the coast and vlys but remain above normal for interior
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1804Z.

At 1656Z at KLAX, there was no inversion or marine layer.

Moderate to high confidence in TAF, as VFR conditions are
expected at all sites, except for at 60% chance of early morning
cigs at KPRB, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the TAF. There is a 40% chance of no
cigs developing tonight. There is a 20% chance of the east wind
component reaching 6-8 kts from 10Z-16Z Tue.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...15/209 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the forecast, with higher
confidence in wind compared to seas.

For the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are
expected to persist through late Tuesday night. There may be a
lull in the winds Tuesday morning, particularly for the northern
waters, but winds are expected to rebuild shortly. There is a
20% chance of Gale force wind gusts around Pt. Conception during
the evening hours today/Tue. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level
winds Wed thru Thu, and a 50% chance on Fri.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level NW winds are
expected thru late tonight. SCA level winds are likely during the
afternoon/evening hours Tue, then SCA conds are not expected Tue
night thru Fri.

For the Inner Waters S Pt. Conception, SCA level W-NW winds are
expected in western portions of the SBA Channel thru late tonight.
There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds this evening for the
eastern portions of the SBA Channel and in the southern inner
waters from Anacapa Island to Malibu. There is a 30% chance of SCA
level W-NW winds in western portions of the SBA Channel late Tue
afternoon into Tue night. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected
Tue night thru Fri.

&&

.BEACHES...15/216 PM.

Wednesday there is 30% chance of low level high surf up to 7 feet
for south-facing beaches of LA county.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...DB/Schoenfeld
BEACHES...Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox