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000
FXUS66 KLOX 131031
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
331 AM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...13/330 AM.

Much cooler weather is expected through the weekend as another
late season storm moves into the region. Rain will begin tonight
with showers lasting through Sunday. Snow is expected at higher
elevations. A warming trend will begin Monday with dry weather
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...13/320 AM.

The leading edge of a cold front is about a hundred miles west of
the Central Coast and is expected to move onshore there by late
morning. Light warm frontal showers are expected to develop ahead
of the cold front from Santa Barbara to LA County, but lower
confidence on when these will begin. Hi res models indicate some
light precip developing as early as 6-8am in SB/Ventura counties
but not until around 11am in LA County. The cold front will
follow during the afternoon and early evening with around 6 hours
of light to moderate rain before exiting LA County by around 9pm
tonight. There is enough cold air aloft along the Central Coast to
warrant a slight chance of thunderstorms there during the late
afternoon and evening.

There will be about 3-6 hours of little to no precip following
the first frontal passage with some clearing skies, mainly during
the overnight hours Saturday night. Then precip is expected to
increase again later Saturday night into Sunday as a secondary
cold front and an even colder upper low moves through the region.
With 500mb temps dropping to -28 to -30c Sunday there will be
chances for thunderstorms just about anywhere across the CWA with
periods of heavy rain at times.

Rain totals still expected to be highest across SLO/SB Counties,
mainly coast and south facing mountains where 1-3 inches of rain
are expected. Across LA/Ventura counties amounts drop off to
around a half to one inch, though locally higher amounts possible
where thunderstorms develop. Snow levels expected to be around
6000 feet Saturday then dropping to around 4000-5000 feet Sunday.
Several inches of snow are possible at higher elevations and 2-5
inches down to around 5000 feet.

The storm is expected to exit Sunday evening with dry and warmer
weather Monday and beyond. Some breezy northerly winds possible
Monday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...13/329 AM.

Light offshore flow and plenty of sunshine is expected Tuesday
with a building ridge over the eastern Pacific and temperatures
warming into the 70s to lower 80s. The warming trend is expected
to peak Wednesday and Thursday with highs possibly near 90 in the
warmer valleys. The ridge will weaken later in the week for some
cooling and possibly a return of marine layer stratus but
otherwise dry with near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...13/0201Z.

At 0115Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4000 ft deep. The top of
the marine inversion was at 4800 feet with a temperature of 10 C.

Low to moderate confidence in TAFs. A frontal system will bring
widespread rain tonight and tomorrow, as well as gusty south
winds. Wind speeds may be off by +/- 5 kts during peaks. Cigs may
be off by a category at times, especially during rain.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of onset of
rain/drizzle may be off by +/- 2 hours, and cigs/vsby may briefly
be off by a category, especially during rain. A southeast wind
direction is expected until around 21-23Z, then winds will shift
SW. Gusts up to 25 kts are possible from 12Z-18Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of onset of
rain/drizzle may be off by +/- 2 hours, and cigs/vsby may briefly
be off by a category, especially during rain.

&&

.MARINE...12/845 PM.

For the northern two outer water zones (PZZ670/673), a period of
SCA level S winds is likely this evening thru Sat morning. Wind
are expected to shift to the W Saturday afternoon and stay at SCA
level for the northernmost waters. Winds will stay below SCA until
Monday, when NW SCA level winds will build and last through Wed.
SCA level seas are expected Sat night thru Mon, with a 50% chance
of returning Tues night thru Wed.

In the southern outer waters zone (PZZ676), there is just a 30%
chance of SCA level S winds tonight/early Sat. SCA level seas are
likely Sat night-Mon. SCA level NW winds are likely Sun night-Wed.

In the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, a period of SCA level S wind
is likely this evening thru Sat morning. There will be a 40%
chance of SCA winds early Sunday morning. Then, winds will stay
below SCA until Monday afternoon, when NW SCA level winds will
build and last much of the time through Wed. There is a 60-70%
chance of SCA level seas Sat night thru Sun morning, and a 50%
chance on Wed.

For the inner waters S of Pt Conception, there will likely be a
period of SCA level SE winds in the SBA Channel late tonight/Sat
morning, with a 50% chance of SCA level winds in the southern
inner waters zone. SCA level W-NW winds are likely in the SBA
Channel Sun night-Tue, with a 30% chance in the southern inner
waters during that time.

There will be a chance of dense fog through the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...12/845 PM.

Low-level high surf is expected this weekend with strong rip
current activity. Surf will peak Saturday night through Sunday
morning at 6 to 10 feet for the Central Coast, highest on west and
northwest facing shores. For beaches south of Point Conception,
surf will peak on Sunday around 4 to 7 feet, highest on west
facing shores.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
      zones 38-344-345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT
      this evening for zones 88-375-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM
      PDT Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until noon PDT today for zones
      342-349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Sunday for
      zones 353-376-377. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for
      zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones
      378-381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 11 AM this morning to
      5 PM PDT Sunday for zones 379-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zones 645-650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT today for zone
      655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Gomberg
BEACHES...Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Gomberg

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox