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000
FXUS64 KLUB 212330
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Relatively quiet weather is expected tonight and Monday as the
forecast area will be under northwesterly mid/upper level flow.
Stratus along the New Mexico state line will continue to erode
through the afternoon hours with generally clear skies expected
early this evening. This in combination with light wind will allow
temperatures to cool efficiently overnight, although with winds
veering to south by late night the slightly colder NBM lows may be a
bit far and have trended the forecast toward MOS. South to southwest
surface winds will increase mid to late morning in response to
cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado and frontogenesis on the
central Great Plains. Breezy to windy conditions will help
temperatures warm to values very close to normal for the date and in
line with MOS and NBM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

An upper ridge along with surface westerly winds will allow for
Tuesday to be the warmest day of the week, with highs near 90 over
much of the forecast area. An embedded shortwave trough in
combination with a surface cold front will bring a slight chance of
thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon/evening mainly off the Caprock,
however given the strong cap due to daytime heating they look to
remain mostly isolated at this time. A similar story exists for
Wednesday with models coming into slightly better agreement
positioning the upper ridge axis approximately over the I-27
corridor in the afternoon. While a strong cap again remains in
place, a few "ridge rider" storms may develop over the far southeast
TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains. Thursday still looks to be the most
favorable day for storms, with a low developing in the lee of the
Rockies. However, much uncertainty remains in the models with GFS
significantly farther south than ECMWF. In any case, highest PoPs at
this time look to be off the Caprock. A brief reprieve for Friday is
possible behind this system, however another low developing over the
Mountain West may continue bring more active weather potential for
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR expected to continue through this TAF period at all sites.
Modest south winds will persist overnight before stronger SSW
winds develop by mid-morning on Monday. Gusts to 30 kt are
expected Monday midday through afternoon, especially at LBB and
PVW.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30