Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 251137
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
637 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

As of 1:30 am a surface cold front has entered the far northwestern
Texas Panhandle and is quickly moving south. This front is expected
to arrive into our forecast area around 6 am and slide south of our
area early this afternoon. Lift from the upper-level low will be
centered over the Texas Panhandle through late this morning before
it slowly shifts northeast this afternoon. This lift combined with
the surface lift from the front is leading to the development of
rain and snow showers. This activity is expected to make it into the
far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains
around sunrise however precipitation amounts should be light. With
dry air near the surface any precipitation that does fall will
quickly lead to wet-bulb cooling hence why rain will transition to
snow. Fortunately, ground temperatures remain warm so no
accumulations are currently expected. Upper-level lift weakens the
farther south you go so the remainder of the forecast area should
remain dry today. This front will keep temperatures much cooler
today with high temperatures only warming to near 40 across the
southwestern Texas Panhandle to the lower 60s across the Rolling
Plains where the front will be slower to move through. These cool
temperatures combined with the breezy northerly winds will lead to
even colder wind chill values. Surface high pressure will begin to
settle over the region tonight allowing overnight low temperatures
to drop near to below freezing area wide. /WI |

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Below average temperatures will persist into Tuesday with the
position of the upper jet core well to the south of the forecast
area. The base of a broad 500 mb trough along with several embedded
shortwaves will move through during the day as well. Forecast
soundings indicate dewpoint spreads lessening around 700 mb and
deterministic models are in good agreement, all showing showery QPF
over much of the area on Tuesday afternoon/evening. There is
currently no mention of thunderstorms in the forecast as confidence
is not yet high enough to include, however even if any occur, there
does not appear to be any severe threat at this time. Light rain may
linger into early Wednesday across the Rolling Plains and far
southeastern TX Panhandle. The remainder of the week looks to be
relatively quiet as an upper ridge gradually builds. Heights will
rise each day starting Wednesday and temperatures will
correspondingly rise as well, potentially reaching the mid 80s by
Easter Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Surface cold front as of 12z was located from near KCVS to KAMA
and quickly moving south. This front will bring a northerly wind
shift to all TAF sites this morning as well as bring in some lower
ceilings. Guidance continues to indicate that these ceilings
should remain just above MVFR heights at our TAF sites but there
is a 10 to 25 percent chance that KPVW and KCDS sees an hour or
two of MVFR ceilings this morning. Northwest winds will remain
breezy through the day before winds quickly diminish after sunset.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...58


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