000
FXUS64 KLUB 181938
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
238 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Surface high pressure continues to build into the region behind this
morning`s cold front with gusty post-frontal northeasterly winds set
to continue through the rest of this afternoon. Zonal flow aloft
will persist through tonight with a modest increase in high level
cloud cover expected this evening ahead of a weak disturbance over
the desert southwest. Tonight, winds will gradually decrease and
veer more easterly, with easterly low level flow continuing through
the day on Friday. The post-frontal airmass will remain relatively
dry through most of tonight until some very weak isentropic ascent
begins to take shape towards sunrise Friday, which will result in a
gradual increase in low cloud cover. Lows tonight will consequently
remain above 40 degrees across most of the region, the exception
being the SW TX Panhandle where mid/upper 30s are expected.
Increasing cloudiness and easterly surface flow are expected to keep
temperatures relatively cool tomorrow as highs only reach into the
upper 50s to lower 60s, but dry conditions are expected to continue
through the day with more impressive moisture and lift holding off
until later Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Rain chances begin to increase Friday night across the forecast area
with increased low level moisture below 700mb and isentropic lift
leading to drizzle and light rain shower activity. Heading into
Saturday, expect a gloomy day with an abundance of low clouds and
intermittent light rain showers throughout the day. A weak shortwave
aloft will bring some forcing for a few moderate rain showers at
times during the late morning to early afternoon hours, most likely
across the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Soundings show some elevated instability, thus a few claps of
thunder and lightning cannot be ruled out. A strong storm may
develop with a low end threat for small hail. Current forecast has
about 0.5" to 0.75" of widespread rainfall. There is a medium (40 to
80 percent) chance of an inch or greater of precipitation east of
the I-27 corridor, with the highest probabilities across the
southern Rolling Plains. A backdoor cold front will bring continued
northeast winds and a reinforcement of cold air. Along with the
cloudy and rainy conditions temperatures will remain well below
normal and chilly on Saturday with highs barely reaching the mid-50s.

Precipitation chances will quickly come to an end by Sunday morning
with subsidence following the passing shortwave. A surface ridge
will dive southward into Texas, which will keep winds out of the
northeast and temperatures cool on Sunday in the upper 50s to lower
60s. An upper level system across the Northern Plains and Canada
will give way to westerly flow aloft. Warm downsloping southerly
surface winds will return Monday with the development of a lee low
across eastern Colorado. Temperatures will quickly rebound to near
normal into the mid 70s with mostly clear skies. A backdoor cold
front Tuesday will give way to the return of northerly surface
winds, but temperatures will still warm into the 80s across the
southern portions of the forecast area with the afternoon frontal
timing. Meanwhile, heating across the northern zones may be stunted
in the 70s with the passing front. Rain chances may return again by
midweek with post frontal increased low level moisture and
isentropic lift. Temperatures are currently forecast in the 70s, but
may end up cooler with potential clouds and rain through the day.
Another upper level system approaches Thursday with the chance for
rain showers and thunderstorms. However, given the uncertainty in
the timing and strength of the extended forecast, a lot can change
between now and the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR expected to prevail through this TAF period. Strong post-
frontal NNE winds with gusts to about 30 kt will continue through
the early afternoon hours, then gradually decrease and veer more
easterly through the evening. A deck of low stratus may develop
near sunrise around LBB and PVW, but bases will likely remain VFR
through the end of this TAF cycle and confidence is too low to
include prevailing mention at this issuance.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30