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000
FXUS64 KLZK 150558
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN
1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The Natural State was situated between sfc high pressure acrs the
southeastern states and low pressure centered over KS. This has
provided for breezy south winds acrs the FA today. Gulf moisture,
albeit shallow, has advected into AR as well, noted by sfc dewpoints
in the upper 50s/lower 60s and SCT-BKN low clouds over central
and southern AR. Mid aftn temps ranged from the mid 70s to the
lower 80s.

Model solutions cont to show that dry conds wl prevail for the most
part tngt and Mon. The low lvl jet wl kick in once again tngt,
allowing low stratus to again form later tngt into Mon mrng, with
all part N AR the favored locations. Expect lower clouds to break up
heading into Mon aftn in most areas, allowing highs to top out in
the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Convective chcs start to incrs over NW AR Mon night as an initial
SWT passes acrs the region. It still looks like the potential for
organized svr storms wl stay to the west of the FA. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage wl incrs in earnest fm the west on Tue, as a
CDFNT apchs from the west.

Regarding the potential for svr wx on Tue, the CAM solutions show
a high shear/low CAPE environment on place over AR. Ongoing convection
acrs western AR Tue mrng, is expected to strengthen later in the
day as the activity encounters a more favorable environment father
east.

Thoughts rmn that a broken line of storms could bring damaging
straight-line winds, along with an isolated tornado or two to the
FA. However, with the primary sfc low/upper dynamics passing north
of AR, confidence is somewhat limited for our area, with the
greater potential for organized svr storms further to our north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Unsettled long term begins with a line of storms and its associated
cold front already in the state with the upper level flow out of the
southwest.  Main upper level support with this system as tracked
well to the north of the state and upper and surface low pressure
centered over SW Wisconsin. Despite the mid 70`s to lower 80`s
forecast dewpoints will remain in the lower to mid 60`s. Wind shear
and helicity will be plenty enough to support severe
weather...however surface based CAPE will be extremely limited. With
the low CAPE/high shear setup all modes of severe weather will be
possible however straight line winds will be the main threat with
this system.

This storm system will push east of the state by Sunrise on
Wednesday. With the surface cold front becoming parallel to the
upper level flow it will struggle to completely clear the state and
temperatures are forecast to remain fairly warm on Wednesday and
Thursday. This stalled front will lift back to the north towards the
end of the week and bring another round of precipitation to the
region to end the long term. At this point, it appears this system
will be the exact opposite of the Tuesday night system.  This system
will have ample CAPE, but lacks wind energy. It is more likely that
this storm system will be an ample rain maker as once again the
frontal boundary will be parallel to the upper level pattern and be
a slow mover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Expect dominant VFR conditions to persist overnight...but MVFR
CIGS look to develop by around sunrise as moisture lifts NE into
the state. There may even be some light rain/SHRA by the afternoon
hrs across SWRN sections.

CAD/NWS Memphis

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  82  66  75 /   0  10  30  70
Camden AR         63  79  65  79 /   0  20  10  50
Harrison AR       61  81  64  77 /   0  10  40  60
Hot Springs AR    62  77  64  75 /   0  30  30  70
Little Rock   AR  63  80  66  77 /   0  20  30  60
Monticello AR     64  79  66  80 /   0  10  10  30
Mount Ida AR      62  76  63  75 /   0  30  40  70
Mountain Home AR  62  83  65  76 /   0  10  30  70
Newport AR        62  83  66  76 /   0  10  20  60
Pine Bluff AR     63  79  65  80 /   0  20  20  50
Russellville AR   63  80  65  77 /   0  20  30  70
Searcy AR         61  81  65  76 /   0  10  20  60
Stuttgart AR      62  79  66  78 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...62