805
FXUS64 KLZK 022251 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
551 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Data from KLZK radar indicate scattered areas of precipitation
moving northeast across the forecast area, with a few convective
cells with lightning affecting the delta region of the state. This
activity is promoted by short wavelength energy approaching the
state.

This activity will continue through most of the overnight hours,
with the greatest coverage of precipitation expected across extreme
eastern sections of the forecast area.

Will have several quick moving fronts approach and affect the
forecast area during the rest of the forecast period.
Climatologically, it is an uncommon instance that a front
approaching the forecast area would not support severe
thunderstorm formation. At this time, however, a review of
forecast fields indicate that those values are not in the
parameter space that favors severe thunderstorm formation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Not many appreciable changes have been made to the forecast/grids
this afternoon as new guidance remains in relatively good agreement
with current thinking that our sensible weather will initially be
unsettled. Any differences were blended together with consensus
between models seeming to be the best way to go.

Period initiates with upper troughing over the upper midwest and a
sprawling upper low /trough sitting off the Oregon coast. On the
surface, a cold front will be sitting over northwest Arkansas where
it will remain through late Sunday. Upper wave kicking out of the
main trough will interact with the boundary as it starts to move to
the north as a warm front Sunday, resulting in a broad area of
showers and thunderstorms with the highest QPF over the northwest
portion of the state.

Aforementioned western system will lift out early next week and move
into the northern high plains. Warm front will lift to the north of
the area allowing temperatures to rise to well above seasonal
averages. As the system moves into the northern plains, another cold
front will be approaching as the parent low occludes out.

This front will likely remain to the north and west of the state and
while precipitation chances will decrease, they will not entirely go
away. The highest chances of precipitation from Tuesday onward will
be across the north and west, closer to that front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Some isolated to scattered SHRA will continue into the evening hrs
across portions of the area...with an isolated TSRA also
possible. A break will be seen for portions of the area overnight
into the morning hrs...then most areas should remain dry for the
daytime hrs Fri. However...convection will become possible again
in the afternoon across SRN sections. Some low CIGs and patchy fog
will be possible overnight into Fri morning as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  79  63  82 /  70  50  20  60
Camden AR         66  80  64  83 /  50  70  30  40
Harrison AR       60  77  60  78 /  40  30  10  70
Hot Springs AR    64  80  64  81 /  50  50  30  50
Little Rock   AR  66  80  67  83 /  70  50  30  50
Monticello AR     67  79  66  83 /  70  70  40  40
Mount Ida AR      63  80  63  80 /  40  40  30  60
Mountain Home AR  61  78  61  79 /  50  30  10  60
Newport AR        65  80  65  82 /  80  40  20  50
Pine Bluff AR     66  80  65  82 /  70  60  40  50
Russellville AR   63  81  63  81 /  50  30  20  60
Searcy AR         64  79  64  82 /  70  50  30  50
Stuttgart AR      67  79  67  82 /  80  60  40  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...62