531
FXUS64 KMEG 292042
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
342 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening as a cold front moves across the region. High pressure
will build in across the Mid-South for Tuesday and Wednesday
leading to dry conditions and above normal temperatures each day.
Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region on Thursday
and linger through Friday as a front stalls in the area.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible this weekend as
warm and humid conditions remain over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of
west Tennessee and north Mississippi at this hour. Another line
of storms has developed over north central Arkansas along a cold
front. Aloft, a well-defined shortwave was digging near the
ArkLaTex region. This wave will help push the cold front through
the entire Mid-South by tomorrow morning. There is the potential
for some heavy rainfall this afternoon, mainly east of the
Mississippi River, where good poleward moisture transport and
instability match up reasonably well. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is
possible with locally higher amounts.

Upper level high pressure will build in across the Lower
Mississippi Valley for Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to dry and
slightly above normal temperatures. Expect highs in the low to mid
80s each day with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

A southern stream impulse will quickly translate east across Baja
California on Wednesday and lift northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Thursday. This will spawn scattered showers
and thunderstorms during the day for western portions of the
forecast area.

A large and nearly stationary upper low over the Northern Plains
will eject several pieces of energy across the Mississippi Valley
through this weekend. The first piece of energy will spawn a
surface low across the northern Plains on Thursday afternoon and
help to drive a cold front into the Lower Mississippi Valley
through early Friday morning. The parent low will lift north into
Canada and orphan the front over the Mid-South on Friday. The
boundary will likely be a trigger for renewed convection on Friday
afternoon due to daytime heating. The weather pattern will remain
muddled through the weekend, as a warm and unstable air remains
over the region, but upper level forcing remains weak. It was hard
to argue against NBM 30-40 PoPs each afternoon, due to weak
perturbations embedded in nearly zonal flow aloft. Organized
weather does not look likely over the next week or so as the polar
jet remains displaced to the north and west of our region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A disorganized line of pre-frontal showers is currently
traversing the region with very little lightning activity.
However, as the actual front catches up later this
afternoon/evening, much stronger forcing will lead to the
development of more widespread clusters of showers with embedded
thunderstorms. TEMPO groups were added to all sites with TSRA as
these clusters move west to east through sunset with briefly
reduced ceilings and/or visibilities. Guidance is still fairly
split on the potential for low ceilings after the front overnight;
the HRRR paints a broad swath of IFR to LIFR ceilings while the
HREF as a whole and MOS guidance are more on the optimistic side
with MVFR ceilings and more of a scattered lower deck. There is
fairly low confidence in the presence of IFR ceilings anywhere
but JBR overnight. Winds should start out southerly this afternoon
and gradually shift to the north tomorrow morning behind the
front, generally remaining in the 6-8 kt range.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CAD