National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMFL 210638
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
238 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

For the remainder of the weekend, the prevailing mid-level
atmospheric pattern over South Florida will gradually weaken as a
deepening trough moves southeastward from the Plains into the
Southeast. Simultaneously, high-pressure systems at the surface
will shift eastward into the Atlantic, while a frontal boundary
remains stationary over the Gulf Coast States and edges
southeastward, expected to pass through Northern Florida tonight
and into Sunday. This movement will alter the wind direction,
transitioning from southeasterly to more south to southwesterly
today. Moisture influx during this period may lead to isolated
showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially where sea breezes
converge across interior regions this afternoon and again on
Sunday afternoon. However, due to limited support from upper
levels, this convection is likely to be brief and shallow.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s across
most areas.

Models are consistent in predicting the arrival of a frontal
boundary on Monday, likely reaching South Florida by late
afternoon or evening. This front is expected to lack strong
dynamic support as its parent trough moves across the Eastern
CONUS, diminishing the likelihood of widespread severe weather.
Instead, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
anticipated, particularly if a mid-level shortwave interacts with
the region, potentially enhancing instability, especially around
Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach County. Consequently, the northern
portion of South Florida, especially north of Interstate 75, is
under a marginal risk for severe weather according to the Storm
Prediction Center.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Looking ahead to the long term, the forecast indicates a
persistent easterly wind pattern, occasionally becoming breezy.
This wind regime will contribute to consistently mild to warm
weather throughout the week, possibly showing a slight uptick in
temperatures toward the weeks end. Anticipate maximum temperatures
ranging from the low to mid 80s, while overnight lows will settle
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Generally VFR with light and variable winds tonight. Southeasterly
to southerly wind flow returns in the morning with sea breezes
expected to develop by the afternoon. APF will have onshore flow
develop and turn westerly by the afternoon. Some late
afternoon/early evening convection over the interior could develop
just west of PBI/FXE/FLL and any remnant convection could retreat
to the Atlantic later in the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Today, a continuation of the gentle to moderate southeasterly wind
flow is anticipated, gradually transitioning to southwesterly
directions and slightly intensifying over the Atlantic waters.
Looking ahead to the upcoming week, easterly winds will prevail
over much of the local waters. Throughout the week, easterly winds
will persist, contributing to overall conditions. Wave heights in
the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less, while the Atlantic
waters will experience wave heights ranging from 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

An elevated risk for rip currents will remain in place for Palm
Beach County. As winds shift onshore by Monday, a high risk for
rip currents will develop for all of the Atlantic beaches. This
risk may continue into the middle of the week as another frontal
boundary approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  72  90  71 /  10   0  30  10
West Kendall     89  69  91  68 /  10   0  30  10
Opa-Locka        89  71  91  70 /  20   0  30  10
Homestead        86  71  90  70 /  10   0  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  86  72  89  70 /  20   0  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  87  72  89  70 /  20  10  50  20
Pembroke Pines   90  72  92  70 /  20   0  40  10
West Palm Beach  88  69  88  68 /  20  10  60  20
Boca Raton       88  71  90  69 /  20  10  50  20
Naples           86  73  84  66 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...RAG