National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMFL 110621
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
221 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Models and sfc analyses depict a deepening trough/low complex
Migrating NE across the E CONUS and pushing the Atlantic ridge
away from the area. The mid-lvl ridge is also weakening and
pushing east ahead of the trough.

The synoptic scenario will result in winds shifting to the south
this morning. Pressure gradients also tighten, with breezy periods
and gusts in the 25-30 mph range today. But models remain conservative
with dew points/rh values still depicting persisting dry
conditions across the southern half of SoFlo today, and introducing
POPs in the 30% range for the Lake region as the front reaches
Central Florida. By late this afternoon and tonight, winds veer to the
SW, along with low-end scattered shower coverage around 30% everywhere.

Shower activity will linger into Friday morning, but model solutions
show good consensus in rapidly pushing the parent trough/low
complex northward and into the Great Lakes area. This will keep the
best dynamic support well away from SoFlo, with mainly a
frontolytic boundary slowly sliding across the area. Thus, no
significant thunderstorm activity is anticipated.

For Friday afternoon, an amplifying ridge will expand across the region
In the wake of the FROPA, bringing a much drier and stable air mass.
High pressure will center over the GOMEX and veering winds across SoFlo
to a more NE flow.

With relatively low shower activity expected and conditions quickly
Stabilizing Friday afternoon, temperatures should not cool down too much.
Afternoon highs are expected to remain in the mid-upper 80s, warmest
over interior areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Long range models show broad high pressure over the GOMEX to start
the period and expanding into the Florida peninsula and the western
Atlantic. This will shift winds to the northeast, with subsidence
and dry conditions resulting in a warming trend, starting this weekend.
Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 80s to around 90 for
the east coast and immediate interior areas, and low 90s over
the Gulf coast and northern interior.

The drier conditions, with little to no significant rain expected through
the forecast period, will also bring decreasing RH values. Thus, the
potential for increased fire weather risk is likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Intermittent MVFR cigs for the remainder of the overnight period
as breezy southeast winds continue. Gusty S-SWrly winds will
prevail across the area today after sunrise. Wind gusts of 25-30
kts will be possible across area terminals this afternoon. MVFR
cigs will be possible once again tonight as a cold front and
associated isolated SHRA approaches the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue over the
Atlantic waters until this evening with fresh to strong southeast
winds shifting more southerly this afternoon ahead of an approaching
cold front. A period of hazardous conditions is also possible on the
Gulf waters ahead of the front. Conditions will improve on Friday
behind the front as high pressure builds towards the area.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Breezy southeasterly to southerly flow will maintain an elevated
risk for the Atlantic beaches today due to residual swell. An
elevated risk may also briefly materialize on Friday for the Gulf
coast beaches as the low-lvl flow shifts northerly and increases
after the cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  71  85  65 /   0  20   0   0
West Kendall     90  69  86  61 /   0  20   0   0
Opa-Locka        91  70  85  64 /   0  20   0   0
Homestead        88  70  85  64 /   0  20   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  87  70  83  64 /   0  30   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  89  70  84  64 /   0  30   0   0
Pembroke Pines   91  70  86  64 /   0  30   0   0
West Palm Beach  90  67  83  61 /  10  30   0   0
Boca Raton       90  68  83  62 /  10  30   0   0
Naples           87  68  80  61 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>068-168.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ610-630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-671.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ670.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...Hadi