Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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415 FXUS62 KMFL 272341 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 741 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 731 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 A stout pressure gradient continues to enhance across South Florida this evening where current observations along the immediate east coast line show sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts in the 30-35mph range. Further inland, frictional convergence has and will continue to result in lower wind speeds albeit still breezy. With this enhanced easterly flow and low level moisture return, some shallow (capped) shower activity continues to regenerate over the instability of the warm gulf waters and propagate onshore across eastern South Florida. Expect much of the same over the next several hours with intermittent brisk pesky shower activity moving onshore during the evening hours into much of Sunday. With the ocean modified airmass advecting briskly in, it`ll be a mild evening and overnight period for the majority of us. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 South Florida sits on the periphery of surface high pressure centered over the eastern seaboard of the United States. An area of low pressure over the central United States will begin to pinch the high southeastward. With the persistent easterly wind flow around the high, the region will remain in a warm, moist airmass through the weekend. Shallow Atlantic showers will be possible through Sunday with on and off light rain in the forecast with a focus for Southeast Florida. As the gradient tightens with the low approaching from the northwest and the center of the high is pinched closer to our area, the winds will continue to build through this afternoon into tonight. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph here at midday could be 35 to 45 mph along the Atlantic coast tonight into Sunday morning. Accordingly, a Wind Advisory has been issued for coastal Miami- Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties. Temperatures remain warm with widespread 80s for afternoon maximum values this afternoon and Sunday. Dewpoint values have been trending towards the drier end of guidance, so favored the NBM the percentile in a blend of the NBM and previous forecast for continuity. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 218 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Models show deep and broad high pressure in firm control of the area with a mid level ridge lingering over the eastern seaboard and sfc high pressure keeping a relatively stable air mass over Soflo through at least the middle of the work week. As the mid level ridge slowly migrates east into the Atlantic, pressure gradients across the state will gradually decrease, with current periods of breezy conditions subsiding by the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. Low-lvl winds gradually veer SE by this time, allowing for a very modest moisture advection to briefly raise chances of rain into the teens, mainly over the east coast. But showers in general will remain very limited through the long term as relatively dry/stable air stays in place. Afternoon high temperatures through Wednesday are expected to reach the low-mid 80s near the coasts, and upper 80s to around 90 inland. Then by the end of the work week, the mid level ridge strengthens and drives high temperatures into the upper 80s near the coasts and low 90s inland. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 731 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Breezy to gusty easterly flow will enhance overnight with gusts of 25-30kts possible across east coast terminals through tomorrow morning. Intermittent shower activity may become realized overnight which could result in bouts of MVFR cigs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Conditions will deteriorate as gusty winds develop with frequent gusts to gale over the Atlantic waters west of the Providence Channel tonight. In addition, seas in the Atlantic will rise to 8-10 ft by Sunday. These elevated winds and seas should begin to subside by the early to middle portion of next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 There is a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic coast as gusty onshore winds will be present through the weekend. In addition, these gusty winds will assist in the formation of larger waves in the surf zone up to 7-8ft this weekend. Therefore, a high surf advisory is in effect for Broward and Palm Beach county beaches this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 80 72 82 / 20 20 10 10 West Kendall 69 81 68 83 / 20 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 71 81 70 83 / 20 20 10 10 Homestead 71 81 70 82 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 72 79 72 81 / 20 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 72 79 71 82 / 20 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 71 82 70 84 / 20 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 70 79 69 82 / 20 20 10 10 Boca Raton 71 81 70 82 / 20 20 10 10 Naples 69 86 67 86 / 0 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ630. Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...Hadi