Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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429 FXUS62 KMFL 070731 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 331 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 High pressure continues to dominate the benign and warm weather pattern across South Florida. This will keep generally easterly to southeasterly flow at the surface for today and Wednesday. Upper levels remain too dry for strong convection, and today is likely to be mainly sunny and dry outside of a few scattered showers and storms that may impact interior and southwest portions of the area during the afternoon. A few showers will be possible across eastern areas during the late morning as the sea breeze pushes inland, but the focus of any convection will shift towards the interior areas of South Florida (where the east and west coast sea breeze will meet) by mid afternoon. On Wednesday, drier air moves in at the mid-levels as high pressure builds overhead leading to even lower rain chances for Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will rise into the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 The Atlantic ridge will shift south as a frontal boundary associated with a low in northeastern Canada pushes into the Atlantic. This will lead to the surface ridge axis sitting over southern Florida from mid to late week period. This will enable a warming trend over several days with widespread 90 degree temperatures save for sea breeze cooled areas closer to the coast. Some inland portions of South Florida could see temperatures reach into the upper 90s, particularly on Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will remain minimal, though some convection cannot be ruled out inland. The risk of heat illness will require monitoring as early as Wednesday as heat index values start entering the triple digits. As drier air aloft mixes to the surface, RHs across interior South Florida could drop into the upper 20% range on Thursday and Friday which could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions. Late in the week, the next frontal boundary will move across the southeastern United States but it will lack the support to clear South Florida. Increasing moisture will lead to more shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend as the front settles over south central to southern Florida. Temperatures will cool slightly with the additional cloud cover and rainfall. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR expected to continue at all terminals through the next 24 hours. Some VCSH are possible around APF after 17Z, but with no significant impacts anticipated. SE winds in the 5-10 kts range continues over the Atlantic terminals, while APF should again experience a shift to the SW with the afternoon Gulf breeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will remain in place through the middle of the week across the Atlantic waters while gentle to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the rest of the local waters. Winds may become southwesterly each afternoon across the Gulf waters as a Gulf breeze develops. Towards the end of the week, winds across all local waters will gradually become more southerly as a frontal boundary approaches from the north. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less through the middle of the week while they remain at 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the middle of the week as moderate onshore winds continue.| && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 75 87 75 / 20 0 10 0 West Kendall 88 72 89 73 / 20 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 88 74 90 75 / 20 0 10 0 Homestead 86 75 88 75 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 85 75 86 75 / 20 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 86 75 87 75 / 20 0 10 0 Pembroke Pines 89 75 90 75 / 20 0 10 0 West Palm Beach 86 72 88 73 / 20 0 10 0 Boca Raton 87 74 88 74 / 20 10 10 0 Naples 88 74 90 75 / 20 0 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/BEACHES/MARINE....Rizzuto AVIATION...17