393
FXUS63 KMKX 010900
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
400 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers developing tonight, with widespread showers and a few
  storms Thursday into Thursday night.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms Saturday and again at
  times next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 400 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Today through Thursday:

Skies will continue to clear out today, with plenty of sunshine
into early afternoon pushing high temps up to around 70. Mid and
high level clouds will increase later today into this evening,
as moisture and warmer temps aloft begin to advect into the
area. The moisture and forcing should be enough for showers to
eventually for by later this evening into tonight, with
widespread showers then expected on Thursday. Models have been
trending farther south with the warm front placement on
Thursday, resulting in a downward trend in temps and instability
across southern Wisconsin. Still looks like some instability and
milder temps will sneak into at least the southwest forecast
area tomorrow, with a better chance for thunderstorms there
later into the day and into the evening hours. Not out of the
question for a few storms to be strong to severe, especially if
the warm sector can solidly push into parts of southern
Wisconsin. Confidence isn`t high in the severe potential though
given the southern trend in models.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 400 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Friday through Tuesday:

Models depict the cold front moving clear of the southeastern
CWA by 7 to 10 AM Friday, with precip chances and cloud cover
diminishing rapidly behind the front. Highs around 70 expected,
with a northwest breeze.

A shortwave trough approaches Saturday, delivering an afternoon /
evening batch of rain showers, with thunder possible. Quiet
weather expected Sunday underneath a high pressure system.
Ensemble model IQRs for daytime high temperatures remain in the
upper 60s to low 70s through the weekend for inland areas. With a
lake breeze possible on Saturday and Sunday, and an easterly
component to the synoptic wind field on Monday, daytime highs for
the Lake Michigan shoreline are forecast to be closer to 60 on
said days.

A deepening low pressure over the northern Plains is expected
early next week, drawing more humid / unstable air northward into
the midwest, and bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms
early to mid next week.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 400 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will clear out west to east early
this morning as a trough exits and high pressure begins to build
in from the west. High clouds will move in this afternoon into
the evening, with showers developing late evening and overnight.
West winds will gust to 25 to 30 knots today, with winds
becoming light for the evening and overnight hours.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 400 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Breezy south to southwest winds this morning will gradually
ease this afternoon, as high pressure moves in from the
southwest. The timing of the Small Craft Advisory today still
looks good. Lighter winds tonight under the high will pick up a
bit out of the east to northeast Thursday, as low pressure
lifts from western Iowa into southeast Minnesota. Breezy
southerly winds Thursday night will become lighter by later
Friday under another high.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 AM
     Wednesday to 5 PM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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