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000
FXUS63 KMKX 140824
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
324 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today.

- Above normal temps expected to continue into early next week.

- Keeping an eye on severe thunderstorm potential next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 325 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Today through Monday:

Early this morning we will see the surface low push out with
higher pressure starting to fill in behind it with winds turning
back to the northwest. The associated front will not feature
much of a temperature change but will bring the wind shift and a
much drier air mass. The temperatures today will likely (80%)
push the mid to upper 70s with some areas possibly reaching
around 80, especially if we mix well enough. 925mb temps will
reach the upper teens (degrees C) and with dewpoints expected
to fall to near mid 30s (degrees F) by the late afternoon with
strong mixing as high as 725mb (8000 ft). This will be a very
dry day with RHs falling to 20-25% with potential (30%) for RHs
to fall as low as 15%. Winds will be modest from the northwest
with gusts as high as 20 mph as mixing should not tap into much
higher winds aloft. This will make for elevated fire weather
concerns today.

Into the day Monday, higher pressure will begin exiting the
region with strong low pressure developing out west. This will
bring light easterly winds to much of southern WI, though flow
may be light and variable. While still being largely clear
through the day 925mb temps (11-15 C) will be lower which will
mean temperatures will not have the same upward potential with
highs more likely (80%) to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. In
addition the easterly flow or at the very least the weak flow
overall should allow for a lake breeze to kick in in the
afternoon, perhaps impacting much of the eastern part of the CWA
by the evening. The air mass will remain fairly dry though the
lower temps and light winds will lessen fire weather concerns.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 325 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Monday night through Saturday:

The system expected to push through the Central Plains has
slowed down a bit, likely due in part to the upper level closed
nature of the low. This has delayed the onset for rain for WI.
Initially we were expecting to see some rain overnight Monday
into Tuesday but now it appears as though we will not see rain
until Tuesday morning at the earliest. This rain will be
associated with the approaching warm front from the south and
may have a few thunderstorms embedded. There will be plenty of
other forcing mechanism at play as well including the upper
level PVA, LLJ and WAA. Overall much of Tuesday is expected
(80+%) to be rainy with lessening chances (20%) for severe
storms in the afternoon/evening primarily due to later timing of
the system, uncertainty in how far north the warm front with
get, and how much instability could we muster up behind the warm
front if it does lift north in time. In addition the lake could
hinder some convection as well. We will continue to monitor the
situation as the deep layer shear is enough to be concerned but
the chances have certainly come down given the various
concerns.

Given the slow moving nature of the closed upper low this will
lead to a very slow progression of the system with the surface
low gradually expected to push across the area Wednesday leading
to another rainy day overall with some thunder chances (20%) as
well, though no severe storms are expected. By Thursday this
system will have pushed to the east for the most part, though a
tongue of mid level moisture associated with some upper level
PVA could impact the region Thursday but the moisture tongue at
the 700mb level appears likely to miss the region largely to the
south so will chances persist they are on the lower side due to
the lack of ideal location at this time. While models are
largely in agreement here we may see quite a bit change
following the bigger system coming through Tue/Wed.

A cooler air mass will gradually push in for the weekend with
higher pressure building. However, at this time the period
looks largely dry with no major precip chances at this time.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 325 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Breezy southwest winds currently across eastern parts of
Wisconsin, which will only last to about daybreak before the
front comes through with winds turning more northwesterly behind
the front. Until that happens expect LLWS to be the primary
aviation concern as west to southwest shear of 45-55 knots at
around 2 kft is expected through around 12z (around the timing
of the frontal passage). Into the day today expect northwest
winds get slightly breezy in the afternoon with gusts up to 20
kts though largely lighter winds are more favorable (60%). VFR
Conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period
with largely light and variable winds overnight into Monday.
Winds will turn easterly later Monday with a lake breeze likely
(70%) by the mid afternoon.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 325 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A surface high will push in today leading to largely quiet
weather. Winds will shift this morning with the passing surface
low, then mostly prevail from the northwest to north today.
However, the breezy southwest winds ahead of the front will keep
the Small Craft Advisory in effect until 7am this morning.
Winds will largely be light and variable winds tonight into
Monday. No precipitation is expected beyond this morning.

Gusty southerly winds are expected to return by Tuesday over the
open waters with gales becoming more likely Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some thunderstorms are possible across largely the
southern portion of the lake during this period.

Kuroski

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
(Issued 325 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024)

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today. Winds will
switch to the northwest by mid morning and gusts this afternoon
will be up to 15 mph with gusts up to 22 mph. Mixing heights will
increase up to 6000 feet by mid afternoon, but winds aloft will be
decreasing to 20 mph or less. Dry air in the low levels is
anticipated with dewpoints dropping into the upper 30s. With
forecast high temperatures in the upper 70s, the minimum RH values
will be around 25 percent. The FFMC fuel moisture values are
forecast to be around 90 to 91 for south central WI, with the
highest values concentrated toward central WI where drought
conditions persist. We issued an SPS in collaboration with
neighboring offices and included areas where the fuels were driest
since weather conditions are right at that marginal threshold for
elevated levels.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Sunday.

&&

$$

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