Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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903 FXUS64 KMOB 152034 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 334 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 An upper level ridge will amplify over the southeast on Thursday as the next shortwave begins to eject into the plains. The ridging combined with a deep layer dry airmass will keep Thursday dry under mostly sunny skies. Highs on Thursday will warm into the upper 80s to around 90 inland to mid and upper 80s near the coast. Lows tonight will be in the low 60s inland to mid and upper 60s near the coast. /13 && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 The next storm system moves in from the west late Thursday as a slow moving upper trough moves across the central plains bringing more showers and thunderstorms to the area through Saturday morning. A lead shortwave is expected to eject northeastward Thursday night into Friday morning bringing a round of heavy rain and thunderstorms to portions of the area. Additional rounds of thunderstorms will develop across the area on Friday and continue until a front finally clears the area out Saturday afternoon/evening. Due to the wet ground conditions from heavy rains earlier this week, WPC has areas along and northwest of I-65 in a Moderate Risk of flooding (4-6 inches possible) with a Slight Risk to the southeast of I-65. Severe storms are also possible on Friday for portions of the area. SPC has a slight risk out for the western half of the area with a marginal risk for eastern area. Damaging winds again will be the main threat along with large hail. /13 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Dry and increasingly warm conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds over the area. Temperatures will be about 3 to 7 degrees above normal, with highs ranging from 86 to 92 degrees and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Southerly winds will increase along with building seas late in the week ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the marine area at times Thursday night through Saturday morning. Offshore flow return late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 64 88 70 85 70 84 68 90 / 0 0 40 70 50 60 10 0 Pensacola 68 86 73 84 73 81 71 88 / 0 0 30 60 50 70 20 0 Destin 70 84 74 83 74 82 72 87 / 0 0 10 50 50 70 30 10 Evergreen 60 90 68 85 69 83 65 89 / 0 0 30 70 60 70 20 10 Waynesboro 60 89 65 85 66 85 64 89 / 0 0 50 80 60 50 10 0 Camden 60 87 66 83 66 82 64 87 / 0 0 40 80 70 60 20 10 Crestview 61 91 67 86 69 85 65 90 / 0 0 20 60 50 70 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob