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000
FNUS74 KMOB 201018
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Chick Cpt 439 440 441...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
518 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...LOW DISPERSION INDEX AROUND 20 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
BURN AREA...

.DISCUSSION...Showers will continue to stream over the burn site this
morning with coverage increasing this afternoon. Strong storms with gusty,
erratic winds and heavy rain are possible this afternoon at the burn site.
Another round of heavy rain is expected early Sunday into the afternoon
behind the cold front. Gusty northerly winds are expected Sunday with gusts
up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Minimum relative stays above critical
thresholds at the burn site.

Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy fog is possible in the pre-dawn
hours this morning, but not likely given the rain showers already moving
over the burn site. No fog Saturday night into Sunday behind the front.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. Chance of showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms early in the morning,
                    then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1300, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...305-701 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 8 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Northeast 3 to 4 meters/second.
Dispersion index....15 increasing to 20 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........78  81  71  82  82  79  79  82  83  82
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RNF RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  30  30  30  50  50  50  60  60
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............70  71  74  76  77  77  78  79  76  76
RH..............90  87  79  76  74  71  69  64  71  69
20 FT wind dir..NE  NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE
20 FT wind spd..3   5   5   6   6   7   6   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.6   7   7   9   9   10  9   9   9   10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1
Mix hgt (km)....0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE N
Transp wind spd.7   7   8   7   8   8   7   7   7   8
Trans spd (m/s).3   3   4   3   4   4   3   3   3   4
Dispersion idx..10  14  17  19  20  20  20  21  18  18
LVORI...........5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    evening, then chance of rain showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Rain
                    showers likely overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1900, then 2 until 0100, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...335-640 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 14 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Northeast 4 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....18 decreasing to 10.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........81  86  84  83  77  80  78  82  81  86  80  84
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).60  50  50  50  30  30  30  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............3   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............72  70  67  65  64  63  61  61  59  58  56  55
RH..............76  78  87  90  87  87  90  90  90  90  93  93
20 FT wind dir..NE  NNE NNE NE  NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE N   NNE NNE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  9   9   8   8   8   9   9   10  10  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3
Mix hgt (km)....0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NE  NNE NE  NNE N   N   NNE
Transp wind spd.8   10  10  10  10  9   9   10  10  10  13  14
Trans spd (m/s).4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   6   6
Dispersion idx..18  7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   7   10  13
LVORI...........3   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   5   5

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely in the morning, then chance of rain
                    showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...488-1006 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....North 16 to 20 mph.
Transport winds m/s.North 7 to 9 meters/second.
Dispersion index....17 increasing to 46.
LVORI...............3.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........88  85  80  83  89  91  89  84  78  72  64  56
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).60  70  70  70  70  70  70  40  40  40  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  53  53  53  53  54  55  55  56  58  59  59
RH..............93  93  93  89  89  83  80  80  74  69  67  67
20 FT wind dir..NNE NNE NNE N   NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..9   9   10  13  13  13  12  12  12  12  12  10
20 FT wind gust.14  14  16  20  20  20  17  17  17  17  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.3
Mix hgt (km)....0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  17  17  20  20  18  17  17  17  18  18  17
Trans spd (m/s).7   8   8   9   9   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
Dispersion idx..17  32  32  33  35  35  36  36  40  44  47  47
LVORI...........5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   2   2   1

$$
Forecaster...7
Requested by...Ryan Barnett
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411411.0/MOB
.DELDT 04/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.barnett@usda.gov