000
FXUS63 KMPX 231205
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
705 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers return midday, primarily over western
  Wisconsin.

- Another frost/freeze overnight with temperatures falling back
  near or below freezing outside the metro.

- Our next system arrives by Friday, with a more widespread
  rain looking likely. The system track still has yet to be
  resolved, thus thunderstorm chances are still possible but
  currently unknown in spread and strength.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Our low pressure center is currently situated along the
Minnesota/Canada border, and will continue to track southeastward
today. This will allow CAA rain showers to move through east-central
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Isolated non-severe thunderstorms
are possible, especially over Wisconsin, where MUCAPE values could
peak around 250 J/kg. For timing, expect a few showers to move
through east-central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin late
morning, with more rain filling in by the afternoon. Any rain should
make its exodus by this evening, with clouds beginning to scatter
out after sunset.

Cool, Canadian air will fill in behind the passing system, resulting
in what should be our last big chance for frost/freeze this month.
Ridging will start to build in over the Plains, which will situate
the MPX CWA right along the boundary of warmer air to our west and
cooler air to our east. As such, highs in western Minnesota tomorrow
could reach the upper 60s, while areas closer to central Wisconsin
will be more in the low-mid 50s. Regardless, it should be a nice day
with mostly sunny skies and weak winds. Areas further east will have
their final shot of below freezing temps overnight Wednesday, while
western Minnesota may not even drop into the 40s.

Thursday will start off as a nice day, but conditions will start to
deteriorate quickly as a negatively tilted trough will look to eject
the first of two waves across the central Plains. Not too much has
changed since the previous discussion, so I will focus on those few
changes/trends. 1) The latest suite of GFS, Euro, and Canadian
ensemble forecasts have started to "balance out" QPF associated with
the two individual systems. In other words, there is a better defined
time frame of when the heaviest rainfall will occur with each
system, with a clear break from rain likely during part of the day
Saturday. 2) The most likely (60-70%) scenario continues to be
widespread rain with sporadic severe weather mixed in, especially in
in southern Minnesota. 3) Strong winds are expected through the
duration of the two waves, with widespread gusts up to 45 MPH
possible Thursday into Friday.

One final note, this stint of active weather is thanks to an omega
blocking pattern that sets up over the CONUS. If this pattern holds,
another good signal for potential severe weather could set up at the
beginning of May. This is obviously WAY too far out to have any
confidence, but just wanted to include to give a heads up of the
potential for this active weather to keep rolling as we head into
May.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

High cirrus will be replaced by mid-level stratocumulus decks
late morning into early afternoon as a weak cold front drops
across the region today. Mainly VFR ceilings expected but a few
showers may develop from eastern MN into western WI, with better
coverage at the WI TAFs, and these showers may bring along brief
MVFR ceilings. There is an outside chance of CB/TS at KEAU so
have included that mention there. Skies will then clear out
overnight through tomorrow as high pressure arrives. Breezy
conditions are again expected with NW winds increasing to
15-20G25-30kts this afternoon before appreciably diminishing
this evening.

KMSP...Ceilings will arrive by late morning and remain in place
through the afternoon push. Small window of having MVFR ceilings
early-mid afternoon and potentially a few minor rain showers.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Chance MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts increasing
to 15-20G30kts.
FRI...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind SE 15-20G25-30kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA, chance TFR/TS. Wind SW 15-20G25-30kts becoming
NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC