356
FNUS73 KMPX 081512
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Gilfillin Lake WMA...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1012 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For Gilfillin Lake WMA, relative humidity values
will fall to 35-40% this afternoon with temperatures warming into
the lower 70s. Winds will become easterly, gradually increasing
to around 10 mph through this morning. A few gusts up to 20 mph
are possible during the afternoon. About a 30 chance of a shower
or thunderstorm also exists this afternoon. However, a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms (around 50%) exists later
this evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Temperature.........65 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................56 percent at ignition...Min 42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 12 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    East winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /28100 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /70600 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
Sky cover.......PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....            SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............65  67  69  69  70  72  72  70  68  64  60  58
RH..............56  52  47  49  47  44  42  49  52  58  69  77
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  E   N   NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..12  12  13  13  12  10  8   9   10  9   9   10
20 FT wind gust.17  17  18  20  17  16  13  14  16  14  14  16
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.1 4.6 4.7 3.2 3.8 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  SE  SE  E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.14  15  17  17  16  12  10  10  14  13  12  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Grunzke
Requested by...Braidey Johnson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413497.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL braidey.johnson@state.mn.us