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000
FNUS73 KMPX 151309
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for WOB_VC Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
809 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the WOB_VC Rx fire, relative humidity will be roughly 30-50
percent at ignition, before falling to 20-25 percent this
afternoon. Isolated showers are possible mid to late morning,
however they will not amount to much and elevated fire weather
concerns will persist through the day. Light early morning winds
will increase out of the east, sustaining between 10-15 mph this
afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Temperature.........47 at ignition...Max 66.
RH..................56 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 7 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northeast winds 7 to 9
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /13000 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /33800 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC
Weather cov.....    CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC SCH
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  53  57  60  62  64  65  66  66  65  64  60
RH..............56  43  34  29  26  25  25  25  24  26  28  36
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   10  9   8
20 FT wind gust.12  13  13  13  13  12  12  13  14  15  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.1 2.9 0.9 0.5
Transp wind dir.E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   NE  E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  12  9   8   9   9   13  14  12  12
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (34800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 21 mph increasing to around 24 mph
                    early in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the morning, then rain showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 57.
RH..................Min 52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. East winds 18 to 26 mph. Gusts up to 37
                    mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    morning and early afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (70000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 24 to 33 mph shifting to the east 35
                    to 39 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Nathan Renk
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410893.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nate.Renk@state.mn.us