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000
FXUS61 KOKX 221811
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
211 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will generally be in control through Tuesday
morning, before shifting offshore and weakening Tuesday
afternoon and night. A warm front will move through late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, followed by a cold front Wednesday
afternoon. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night, and move off the Northeast coast on Friday.
A frontal system may impact the area for the weekend.
High pressure will briefly return Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
No changes for this update as temperatures and conditions appear
to be right on track. No timing changes with respect to sea
breeze for southern / eastern locations, still thinking late
afternoon, although immediate coastline experiences localized
sea breeze a bit earlier. A very pleasant and seasonably cool
spring afternoon continues. High temps should reach the lower
60s in urban NE NJ, the upper 50s to about 60 most elsewhere,
and mid 50s across eastern Long Island and coastal SE CT.

Because last night temps across some interior valley spots and
in parts of eastern Long Island fell below freezing, with upper
20s/lower 30s think tonight should be very similar. Some mid
30s readings made it down to the SE CT coast and into much of
the rest of the interior and across eastern Long Island where
winds were relatively light. Thus a freeze warning is in effect
for late tonight into early Tue AM for Orange County, and frost
advisories for much of the interior and across eastern Long
Island. There is a possibility for frost advisories and freeze
warnings to be expanded by a few zones, but will evaluate dew
points later in the day to get a better feel.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A southerly flow will set up daytime Tue as the sfc high moves
to the east and weakens in between an approaching cold front
well off to the west, and a developing ocean storm. Temps should
once again reach the mid/upper 50s along the coast, with lower
60s inland and some mid 60s in urban NE NJ.

Expect an increase in clouds ahead of the approaching front Tue
night, with chance of showers from NYC north/west late, then
throughout Wed morning as a warm front passes through. A cold
front and strong mid level shortwave trough will move through in
the afternoon, and if NAM fcst soundings are correct should be
accompanied by a band of showers/tstms, with likely PoP inland
and chance PoP for NYC/Long Island/coastal SE CT. Stronger
cells could produce gusty winds given dry sub-cloud air and
steep low level lapse rates. High temps look to be a little
warmer across the board, with widespread lower/mid 60s, possibly
upper 60s in NE NJ and NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will be in control Wednesday night into Friday
night with a cool airmass in place, and temperatures below
seasonal normals. With late April temperatures below normal,
frost and freeze headlines will be possible across much of the
area Wednesday night and Thursday night.

A warm front approaches Saturday and slowly moves into the area
through Sunday as the associated low remains in the western
Great Lakes region. A return southerly flow sets up Friday night
with high pressure off the northeast coast. And a southerly
flow, and the approach and possible warm frontal passage will
bring temperatures to levels 5 to 10 degrees above normal
Saturday and Sunday. There will be chances for showers with the
warm front, however, there remain timing uncertainties with the
movement of the front. There a also a low chance of isolated
thunder Sunday with some CAPE and developing surface
instability. However, with the uncertainty of the warm front
position, low chance of thunder, late in the forecast period,
will not mention thunder at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west through today, and
remains in place tonight. An afternoon thermal/lee trough sets
up.

VFR.

NW generally 10 kt or less. Gusts of 15 to 20 kt look to
continue for some terminals based on current observations, but
may become more occasional as the afternoon progresses. There
is a chance of afternoon seabreeze, with best chances at KJFK,
KBDR, and KGON. Sea breezes may move a could of hours earlier than
forecast. Light and variable to light SSW winds prevail
tonight.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional than frequent, especially this
afternoon.

There is a chance of a late day seabreeze at KJFK. The sea
breeze may move through a couple of hours earlier than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday night: VFR. S wind 10 to 15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. A chance of showers late
Tuesday night, mainly at the NYC metro terminals, and northwest.

Wednesday: Generally MVFR with showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Low chance of IFR. SW winds 10-15G20-25kt, becoming W-NW in
the afternoon into the evening.

Thursday-Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on the waters through Tue evening. Increasing S
flow ahead of a cold front should build ocean seas above 5 ft
late Tue night into Wed. NY Harbor could also see a few gusts up
to 25 in W-NW flow after fropa late day Wed.

Ocean seas remain elevated Wednesday night behind the cold
front, and gusts during the evening may briefly reach SCA
levels as departing low pressure deepens. The non ocean waters
will be below advisory levels Wednesday night through
Thursday.

Ocean seas gradually subside late Wednesday night in a weakening
NW, falling below advisory levels Thursday morning. Winds and
seas across the forecast waters then remain below advisory
levels through Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns attm.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     CTZ005>008-011-012.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ068>070-079-081.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ067.
NJ...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET