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000
FXUS64 KOUN 190402
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1102 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

As of 2:30 PM, the cold front extended from Holdenville to Ardmore
and breezy north winds with gusts of 35 to 45 mph have been observed
behind the boundary. A cooler airmass has entered much of Oklahoma
with coolest temperatures currently in the mid 50`s across parts
of northern and west-central Oklahoma.

Latest satellite shows a line of cumulus extending along the front
and recent radar images show elevated echos in Tulsa`s area with a
few cloud flashes observed there also. A brief window of strong to
severe storms remains possible across our southeastern counties
this afternoon and with the front likely exiting our CWA boundaries
by 5 PM. Large hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up
to 60 mph are possible with any storms that develop in our area.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 30`s
(northern OK) to low 50`s (southeast OK). Winds gradually decrease
overnight, and though winds will be light by dawn on Friday, wind
chills could drop into the low 30`s.

Tomorrow, expect increasing clouds and high temperatures in the
60`s. Low rain chances return to southeastern parts of the FA
during the day.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A subtropical shortwave will translate across the desert southwest
as surface high pressure overspreads the region. Deepening
isentropic lift will bring rain to our area late Friday night,
during the day Saturday and into the evening for the southern
half of our CWA. With low to potentially moderate instability
prog`d, there is a chance of sub-severe thunderstorms through
this period as well. The rainfall amount gradient will be oriented
north (lower amounts) to south (higher) across our CWA with the
highest mean 48-hour rainfall amounts near 2 inches (and 75th-90th
percentile amounts of 3-3.5 inches) concentrated near Wichita
Falls and eastward along the Red River.

With cloudy skies and widespread rain, below-average temperatures
are expected. While low temperatures are not prog`d to reach
freezing, it will still feel chilly the next few nights and into
the morning hours with wind chill values in the 30`s possible
through early Monday morning.

Then more seasonable conditions return on Monday. Shower and
thunderstorm chances return on Tuesday with the approach of
another cold front.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

MVFR stratus deck expected to erode by 07Z at terminals KOKC &
KOUN, but may linger a bit longer at terminal KSPS which may not
return to VFR conditions until 16Z. Otherwise, the remainder of
our terminals should stay under VFR conditions, although terminal
KDUA may return to MVFR conditions after 18Z. Surface winds will
remain northerly. Could see some thunderstorms affecting terminals
south of I-40 after 00Z but probabilities are low at this point to
go beyond PROB30`s at this point in time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  66  48  56 /   0  10  60  80
Hobart OK         42  65  45  54 /   0   0  70  80
Wichita Falls TX  48  67  50  56 /   0  10  90  90
Gage OK           38  64  40  54 /   0   0  40  60
Ponca City OK     42  65  45  59 /   0   0  20  40
Durant OK         50  70  53  60 /  10  20  80  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...68