Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 211142
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
642 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Showers and storms are ongoing across northern and central Oklahoma,
and are expected to continue through Thursday. So far, only very
infrequent small hail has been observed, however the slow moving
nature of these showers have resulted in some isolated flooding
concerns.

As the upper level trough continues it`s slow shift
eastward through New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle,
precipitation coverage is expected to increase due to increased
moisture advection into the region as well as wide scale
destabilizing with the cold air advection aloft around the upper
level cyclone. While overall storm development will continue to be
messy with a weaker shear regime (20-30kts 0-6km shear), instability
increasing in the afternoon (~1000 J/kg MUCAPE) may result in some
stronger storms to develop, with a potential severe storm along and
south of the Red River. Any strong storms that develop, strong winds
and hail will be the main concern.

As is usual with these upper level cyclones that are mostly removed
from the main flow, timing and speed remains fairly uncertain, and
the increase in precipitation will be gradual. However,
precipitation will be expected to continue into Thursday night and
into early Friday morning before ending west to east through the
region.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

After the precipitation exits the region Friday to the east, upper
level ridging will gradually take over in the wake of the exiting
trough. Clearing skies and seasonably average temperatures are
expected to continue Friday afternoon and into Saturday. Saturday
afternoon, winds will shift back out of the south as upper level
ridging increases over the central CONUS, ahead of a deepening
trough and upper level low pressure cyclone over the Pacific coast.

Initially, some isentropic showers are possible across northern
Oklahoma early Sunday morning. In response to the deepening trough,
a series of shortwaves will eject along the periphery of the larger
scale trough, which will shift east of the Rockies on Sunday and
induce some low to mid level cyclogenesis on the lee side of the
Rockies. Winds will intensify over the region in response to this
increased pressure gradient, as the newly developed cyclone shift
along the flow to the east. As the cyclone develops and moves to
the east, a strong and rapid destabilization will occur through
the region with much colder air aloft advected in, as well as
strong wind shear with the synoptic orientation of the strong
southerly surface winds and the southwest flow aloft from the
approaching trough. With this strong instability and wind shear,
any storms that develop may become severe on Sunday, however
strength/depth of moisture advection into the region continues to
be a possible limiting factor, as well as uncertainty of timing.

Early next week as the large scale upper level trough shifts through
the region, a cold front is expected to move through Monday, with a
noticeable cooldown possible with the airmass behind the front.
Highs again will drop into the 50s and 60s across the region, with
possible below freezing temperatures across portions of western,
northern, and central Oklahoma.

One more final personal note: This is my last forecast as a
forecaster in the Norman WFO. It has been an absolute honor and a
privilege to serve the Oklahoma and western north Texas region
these past 5+ years. Serving the people in this position, working
with all our partners, and working with my passionate and
extremely talented coworkers at WFO Norman has been an absolute
highlight of my career. While leaving this position is
bittersweet, I get to leave knowing some of the best of the best:
from my coworkers, to emergency managers, to broadcast media, to
first responders, and to storm spotters, are here making sure
everyone is as safe as possible. We`ve got a pretty good thing
going.

Thank you everyone, take care, and don`t forget: remain weather
aware! That`s right, I`m ending this on a rhyme. It`s 3:30am. I`m so
sorry.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Areas of showers and thunderstorms will slowly move east this
morning with additional redevelopment in the southwest this
afternoon as the mid-level trough approaches the area. Some MVFR
conditions are occurring with the showers, but otherwise
conditions are generally VFR. Ceilings will lower this afternoon
and especially this evening even apart from any precipitation and
MVFR will become more widespread with areas of IFR possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  52  69  38 /  80  70  10   0
Hobart OK         65  49  71  38 /  70  60  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  66  53  72  43 /  80  80  10   0
Gage OK           70  43  69  33 /  40  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     70  49  68  33 /  50  40  10   0
Durant OK         67  53  70  44 /  60  90  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...26


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