035
FXUS64 KOUN 031727
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers/storms will continue into the morning hours with
the highest chances in east central and southeast parts of the fa.
The severe potential with this activity has diminished but still
could get some gusty winds out of the stronger storms. Heavy
rain/localized flooding will also be possible, especially in those
areas that have already received several inches of rain and where
storms train.

The frontal boundary that moved across parts of the area Thursday
will lift back north later today with moisture spreading back
northward. Thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the area
later today and move into the fa this evening/overnight. Meanwhile,
another cold front is expected to begin to move into the fa
overnight/early Saturday which would also be a focus for
shower/storm development. Severe storms will be possible starting
this evening with damaging wind and hail possible.

Highs today are expected to be in the 70s to low 80s with overnight
lows ranging from the mid 50s in the NW to the mid 60s in the SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

With the frontal boundary over the fa and potentially a shortwave
moving across the region, showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible Saturday into Sunday. Severe storms will be possible again
Saturday evening and overnight with damaging wind and hail. However,
what might be a bigger concern this weekend is the potential for
more widespread heavy rain with heaviest amounts expected across the
southern half or so of the area. With the recent heavy rainfall that
has already occurred, this heavy rain could lead to additional flash
flooding/river flooding in several areas.

For Monday, models show an upper trough approaching and moving into
the Plains. At the sfc, a dryline develops and moves into the area.
Thunderstorms will be possible once again with severe storms
possible. The potential for severe weather could be greater on
Monday compared to the next few days due to the added upper air
support. There are some uncertainties since what happens over the
weekend could affect the airmass over the region but with the upper
support and dryline, thunderstorms/severe storms are possible Monday.

After Monday it looks like there could be a period of quieter
weather for at least the middle of next week with highs in the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Low stratus will continue to affect most TAF sites through the
afternoon, and will affect all TAF sites later in the period.
There is a low chance that storms move into portions of western
Oklahoma and northern Oklahoma overnight. Southeasterly winds will
shift towards the north as a cold front moves in early Saturday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  77  60  74 /  40  90  70  80
Hobart OK         60  76  58  75 /  50  80  80  60
Wichita Falls TX  62  78  61  77 /  40  80  80  60
Gage OK           54  68  51  75 /  70  50  60  50
Ponca City OK     61  73  57  72 /  60  80  60  70
Durant OK         65  79  64  76 /  30  70  70  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...13