Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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758 FXUS61 KPBZ 271318 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 918 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will move through the region this morning with a crossing warm front. A rumble of thunder is possible as well. Warm temperatures today and Sunday. An afternoon shower or storm is possible across the north on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers with a low chance of storms persist through the morning, departing to the east by afternoon. - Warmer temperatures today. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Upper level ridge axis will be pushed eastward this morning as a weak shortwave trough slides across Ohio. In between the trough and ridge, a surface warm front will cross the region, exiting to the north by early afternoon. Showers will move through this morning and should clear the northeast by early this afternoon. A rumble of thunder is possible at any time this morning, but forecast soundings continue to show little to no instability and a low-level inversion. Rainfall amounts should be light. NBM probs for >0.10 inches are generally 20 to 40%. Once the showers clear, strong warm air advection is expected this afternoon. Highs today, even with lingering cloud cover, should be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The warmest temperatures will be across the west, with the coolest over the northeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Summer-like temperatures Sunday and Monday. - Storms Sunday are possible north of I-80. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Rising 500mb heights are expected again on Sunday as a large dome of high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS. A weak shortwave will try and sneak over top of the ridge Sunday afternoon. This will stall the ridge amplification and could spark a shower or storm mainly over the I-80 corridor. This upper level wave will likely bring an increase in clouds across the northern half of W PA as well, while the rest of the forecast area should see plenty of sun. A destabilization of the atmosphere is possible Sunday afternoon with the greatest across the north. Storm generation will be working against warm air aloft and increased subsidence from the impressive ridge. The ridge will also work to limit wind shear on Sunday, hampering storm intensification. The big story Sunday will be the well above normal temperatures. Highs Sunday will push into the 80s across much of the region, except the far north where cloud cover should keep temperatures a bit cooler. Upper level ridging will continue on Monday. The ridge will shift southeastward Monday afternoon as a deep trough digs into the western Great Lakes. However, strong subsidence from the ridge should allow for a dry day with plenty of sunshine and even warmer temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - An unsettled pattern continues through next week with above- average temperatures favored. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A surface cold front is expected to pass during the day on Tuesday, followed by a flattening of the eastern ridge. By Wednesday, clusters still vaguely agree on quasi-zonal flow, but uncertainty spurs from here into late week. Mainly, two scenarios emerge: the first develops a central CONUS ridge that enforces an eastern troughing pattern. This would lead to a drier, cooler pattern. The second scenario keeps quasi-zonal flow in the central CONUS, which translates to zonal flow to the east as well. This pattern may lean a bit warmer and more unsettled. Both CIPS analogs and the CSU MLP highlight low severe probabilities into Tuesday through Thursday, so conditions will need to be monitored as we head into next week. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers and a few rumbles of thunder expected this morning with a crossing warm front, but VFR cigs will likely be maintained based off latest forecast soundings and upstream obs. MVFR cigs will be possible tonight as the warm front stalls and low level moisture pools along it. SE wind around 10 kt should veer to the south after FROPA, with speeds continuing around 10kt. .Outlook... Mainly VFR is expected through Monday as a ridge builds back across the region. Restrictions are likely Tuesday in showers and a few thunderstorms with a crossing cold front. VFR returns Wednesday under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...22/88 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...Milcarek AVIATION...88