Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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681 FXUS65 KPUB 110534 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1134 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Round 2 of precipitation will impact ALL of the area tomorrow, with scattered showers the rest of today and tonight (especially south). - Continued generally cool and unsettled through Sunday, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms and mountain snow. - Warmer early next week with another possible system for mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Currently... Upper mid level low which brought all the precip to the high country and I-25 corridor areas last night was spinning north of Las Vegas NV this early afternoon. This system continues bring scatted rain and snow showers to a large area of the 4 corners states, especially UT and W CO. Over our immediate region, showers were noted over the San Juans, with more lighter precip over the rest of the CONTDVD and N Sangres. From a satellite perspective, some clearing was noted over the San Luis valley this afternoon, and most of the plains west of the longitude of KLHX was mostly sunny. The remainder of the region was cloudy and cool. As for temps, not surprisingly, where it was sunny temps were over 60F over the plains with 40s in the SLV, while the rest of the plains were in teh 40s to L50s. Mtns, especially mtn tops, were quite cold, with readings around 20F (indicating fairly stout lapse rates over the fcst area). The rest of today through late tomorrow afternoon... Upper low will retrograde to our west a bit before starting to limp to the east starting tomorrow morning, and is fcst to reach the 4 corners region by 00 UTC Sunday. Although a couple of minor disturbances will rotate around this system, the next significant ripple will push east-northeastward tomorrow, and this will bring another round of enhanced showers and isold tsra (with high mtn snows) to the region during the day tomorrow. Since the primary low will be moving slowly east, the plains will likely get into the action by mid day tomorrow, and expect likely to categorical pops to overspread the entire fcst area by tomorrow afternoon. Since the brunt of the pops will affect the region during highest sun angle tomorrow, any significant snow will occur at mainly the highest elevations, so do not expect any impactful snow to affect the public with this event. Another 3 to 6 inches of snow with local amounts of 10" will be possible, mainly at or above 10 kft across our higher terrain. Morning mins tomorrow should be in the 40s plains with 30s valleys and teens and 20s mtns. Max temps will be in the 60s most of the plains with some L70s far east, 50s SLV and 30s and 40s mtns. Winds should not be an issue although some breezy southerlies are likely on the plains by tomorrow afternoon. We will likely see a healthy does of non severe thunder over the mtns tomorrow, with isold storms along the I-25 corridor. Lots of peas/graupel will be possible over the higher terrain. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Saturday night-Sunday night...Modest southwest flow aloft across the region Saturday becomes increasingly northwest through the day Sunday, as upper low continues to lift out across south central and southeast Colorado into north central Kansas by Sunday night. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms storms spread out across eastern Colorado Saturday evening, with deformation band precipitation associated with the passing upper low developing across south central Colorado and into the Pikes Peak region late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Passing upper system sends a cold front across eastern Colorado through the day Sunday, with wrap around moisture, and low level moisture pooling along and behind this front, leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region once again. Latest model data does indicate the potential for moderate instability along this front, with a few stronger storms possible Sunday afternoon across the southeast Plains. Also, given the colder air progged aloft with the passing upper low, there could be the potential for some cold air funnels or even a landspout. Snow levels waver between 9K-10K feet during through this period, with a few inches of snow expected on the higher peaks Saturday night and again on Sunday. As for temperatures, generally below seasonal levels are expected on Sunday, with highs in the 60s to low 70s across the Plains, and mainly 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, save for 30s at the peaks. Monday-Friday...Warmer and drier weather remains in the offing for Monday as upper level ridging builds across the region early next week. There looks to be enough moisture in place to support isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms, on Monday. Latest models do indicate increasing westerly flow aloft on Tuesday, with increasing moisture within the flow supporting scattered showers and storms across the region, especially along and west of the ContDvd. Beyond Tuesday, models continue to differ on the timing and location of the next system moving across the region through the middle of next week, with the latest GFS slower, stronger and further south with the system, as compared with the ECMWF solutions. Either way, models indicate increasing chances of precipitation on Wednesday, along with cooler temperatures as a front pushes south across the region. Drier west to northwest flow to prevail across the region Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1121 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 An upper low will gradually push into the Four Corners region over the next 24 hrs, continuing to produce widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms across the forecast area overnight tonight through Saturday afternoon and evening. KCOS and KPUB: Rain showers moving up from the south will keep at least VCSH in the taf over the next 24 hrs if not SHRA. Plan on VFR with intermittent MVFR until around 12z-14z, then increasing S-SE surface winds with VCTS and MVFR conditions due to lowering cigs. Back to VFR and VCSH after 01z Saturday eve. KALS: MVFR conditions and rain showers to likely continue across the terminal over the next 24 hrs with intermittent IFR cigs. VCTS in the TAF starting at 19z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...MOORE