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000
FXUS62 KRAH 230645
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead this morning, then shift to our SE
this afternoon and tonight. A dry cold front will approach from the
NW late tonight, then shift across the region Wednesday. High
pressure to our north will follow the front Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 232 AM Tuesday...

Frost Advisory through 800 AM today. Scattered frost is expected in
the rural areas away from town centers.

High pressure will be overhead this morning with clear skies and
light wind. Temperatures will dip into the mid 30s with scattered
frost in outlying areas. The high pressure will shift to our SE this
afternoon allowing a return SW flow at 10 to 15 mph. Highs will
moderate to around 70 for all areas.

A dry front will approach from the NW late tonight. There will be
some increase in clouds tonight, with a period of mostly cloudy
skies expected late tonight over the Piedmont. Lows will be in the
upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 AM Tuesday...

The dry cold front will move across the area on Wednesday. It will
actually be warmer on Wednesday with a pre-dominantly westerly flow
becoming northwest. The CAA will be delayed until Wednesday night.
A period of cloudy skies will likely accompany the front during the
morning into the early afternoon. A sprinkle can not be ruled out
although no QFP is currently advertised. Otherwise, the skies are
expected to become partly sunny Wednesday afternoon. Highs should
range in the 70s. It will be cooler Wednesday night with the flow
becoming more NE. Models and soundings suggest partly to mostly
cloudy periods on Wednesday night. Lows in the 40s to lower 50s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Extended period of dry weather through early next week with
temperatures soaring into the 80s by Mon.

Central NC will largely remain under NW flow aloft through the
weekend from the departing broad troughing shifting offshore Thurs
morning to the building subtropical ridging over the eastern CONUS.
A surface cold front is forecast to have pushed through central NC
by Thurs morning as Canadian high pressure shifts from the Great
Lakes region to just off the Northeast coast and extending down
through the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through Fri.
This will favor below normal temperatures and dry conditions through
late week.

Surface flow shifts out of the south/southeast by Sat as the surface
high becomes suppressed south to just off the Carolina coast by Sun
evening. This will mark the pattern shift as low-level moisture and
thicknesses steadily begin to rise and an inverted trough pushes on
shore Sat afternoon. NWP guidance hints at the potential for light
rain showers to accompany the passage of the inverted trough, mainly
over southern Coastal Plain, Sandhills and into SC where higher
theta-e airmass will reach first. Although confidence is low on if
this feature will be enough to produce measurable precipitation. The
subtropical ridge and 850 anticyclone may begin to shift over the
Atlantic on Mon and may signal a change for upstream precipitation to
leak across the mountains into early next week. High temperatures
have a high likelihood of reaching >= 80 degrees (80-95% chances) by
Mon with low/mid 80s in the current forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. Expect clear skies and calm to light winds
overnight, with continued clear skies and winds increasing from NW
to SE through the afternoon Tuesday.

Outlook: Largely VFR conditions are expected through Sat. There are
two possible exceptions. First would be a small chance for a brief
period of light showers/sprinkles and/or borderline VFR/MVFR cigs as
a weak cold front moves into/through the area on Wednesday. The
other would be a possible brief period of borderline VFR/MVFR cigs
Thu morn/early aft. However, confidence in both occurrences of
restrictions remains low at this time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ007>011-
023>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...KC/pwb