Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
000
FNUS71 KRNK 162035
FWSRNK
Spot Forecast for Blue Panther...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
435 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1700 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving through the area,
and diminish by around 8 PM tonight as a cold front remains draped
across southwest Virginia. Any thunderstorms that develop through
this evening have the risk of lightning, as well as wind and
hail. As the front lifts north on Wednesday, winds will shift back
to the southwest. Daily isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected in the afternoons and evenings through Friday.
Abundant cloud cover tonight will keep overnight temperatures
mild, in the mid 50s. Relative humidity will recover to above 80%
by Wednesday morning.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
CWR (0.01 in).......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South around 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (20200 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................29.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 5PM
Sky (%).........32
Weather cov.....SCT
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........SCT
CWR.............30
Temp............73
RH..............41
20 FT wind dir..S
20 FT wind spd..6
20 FT wind gust.11
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0
Mixng wind dir..S
Mixng wind spd..6
LVORI...........2
ADI.............29
Haines index....5
VRate mph-ft/1K.23
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then isolated showers and thunderstorms early
in the evening.
CWR (0.01 in).......30 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 1 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (400 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 to 27.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........47 45 46 41 57 67
Weather cov.....SCTTRD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........SCTTRD ISOLTD
CWR.............30 20 10 10 10 10
Temp............72 69 66 63 62 60
RH..............43 53 58 63 68 72
20 ft wind......S 6 S 6 S 5 S 5 S 6 SW 6
20 ft wind gust.10 8 7 7 10 8
Mix hgt (ft)....3400 600 500 500 500 500
Mixing wind......S 6 S 7 SE 3 SE 1 SE 1 SE 1
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 4 4
ADI.............27 5 3 1 1 1
Haines index....5 5 5 5 6 6
VRate mph-ft/1K.21 4 2 1 1 1
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (60-70 percent). Isolated rain showers in
the late morning and early afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms early in the afternoon, then
scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 1 to 3 mph shifting to the southwest 6 to
15 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (54800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................0 early in the morning increasing to 55 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........92 97 92 58 51 78
Weather cov..... ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
CWR.............10 10 20 20 20 30
Temp............59 60 65 69 72 74
RH..............78 76 66 57 50 46
20 ft wind......SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 S 8 S 9
20 ft wind gust.7 7 10 11 13 16
Mix hgt (ft)....400 500 1000 1600 3300 5000
Mixing wind......SE 1 S 1 SW 6 SW 7 S 6 S 13
LVORI...........4 4 3 2 2 1
ADI.............1 1 7 16 23 52
Haines index....6 5 5 5 5 5
VRate mph-ft/1K.0 1 6 12 19 63
$$
Forecaster...Sava
Requested by...Adam Christie
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410688.7/RNK
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Adam.christie@usda.gov