National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSHV 190601
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
101 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The mid-evening sfc analysis indicates that our cold front has
entered Nrn and Wrn McCurtain County OK, tailing SW to near PRX,
TRL, and ACT as of 0230Z. The widely scattered convection that had
been present along the bndry has since dissipated since the
setting sun, likely given the lack of large scale ascent aloft to
help keep this convection going. Very little change is expected to
the synoptic pattern overnight, with some isolated to widely
scattered convection possible along the frontal zone overnight as
it seeps SE into NE TX/SW AR and eventually, extreme NW LA by
daybreak Friday. Despite the presence of very strong instability
remaining ahead of the front (SBCapes of 3000-3500 J/Kg) and
adequate deep lyr shear, not expected deep convection to develop
given the lack of forcing aloft, and thus have cancelled SVR Watch
#126 for McCurtain County OK and the Nrn sections of SW AR.

The frontal sfc is expected to become more shallow as it seeps
through the higher terrain of the Ouachitas overnight, with any
cold advection minimal as it nears the I-20 corridor of extreme
Ern TX/NW LA by daybreak. Still can`t rule out some isolated to
widely scattered convection along and ahead of the front, but have
toned down pops to low/slight chance in VC and N of I-20. Also
raised min temps tonight across a large part of the area ahead of
the front, given the weak cool advection and the expected cu and
low cig development expected to continue. The front still remains
progged to continue drifting oh so slowly S through the remainder
of Lower E TX/N LA through the day Friday, before eventually
settling S of the region during the evening. Attm, any -SHRA
development should be isolated with additional QPF amounts light,
while also tapering the very warm and humid conditions as of late
back to more tolerable levels.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, a weak front over the plains will
edge down along I-20, shifting our winds from S to vrb and then
N/NE for the day ahead around 10KT or less this aftn. IFR/MVFR
cigs with light BR and slight chance for some stray shwrs/isold
TS along and S of I-30 for a few hrs, then shifting down to along
I-20 by daybreak. This fropa is the beginning of NE winds that
will continue all wknd w/ another couple of upper impulses riding
along the front through Sat. Skies will clear out Sun aftn. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  60  67  52 /  20  40  60  90
MLU  77  59  66  51 /  20  20  50  80
DEQ  71  50  59  45 /  20  70  80  80
TXK  71  53  61  50 /  20  60  80  80
ELD  70  51  61  46 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  74  60  67  51 /  20  50  80  90
GGG  75  59  67  50 /  20  40  70  90
LFK  84  66  79  53 /  20  10  60  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...24