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000
FXUS64 KSHV 140808
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
308 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 836 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Fair skies this evening will see some additional cirrus arriving
overnight with some in W & N TX right now. We are falling through
the 60s temperature wise with lows on track to end up right
around 60 degrees plus or minus two by daybreak. So no changes
needed with guidance all stacked in the upper 50s and lower 60s
for our interests. Light S/SE winds will continue with dew points
in the 40s for most of us now and with perhaps a little warming
there overnight, but still dry enough to preclude much in the way
any fog for our early risers. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The amplifying ridge over the Front Range ahead of a deepening
trough over the Pacific Coast ridge will drift eastward over the
Plains late Sunday and overnight into Monday, quickly trekking
across the Four State Region and passing on to our east by Monday
afternoon.

Very little has changed in terms of the position and timing of the
storms and possible severe weather. Following on the heels of
this weekend`s ridge, the deep trough and its closed low will push
across the Intermountain West Monday, crossing the Plains in time
to swing a surface cold front and attendant storm system into the
ArkLaTex overnight Monday into the early hours of Tuesday. As of
this writing, storms do not look to enter our northwesternmost
zones until after 00Z Tuesday at the earliest, becoming more
widespread to the south and east as dawn approaches, overspreading
the majority of the reason by Tuesday afternoon before departing
to the north and east Tuesday evening.

Much of the ArkLaTex along and north of the I-20 corridor, now
including more of east Texas, remains in a 15% outlook for severe
thunderstorms with the Tuesday system. It remains too early at this
time to confidently speculate on potential modes of severe weather.
For now, all modes should be considered possible, along with the
potential for further flash flooding in areas which remain saturated
with still-swollen creeks and rivers. Only the southern Arkansas
zones of the ArkLaTex are currently outlooked in the Excessive
Rainfall Outlook, but given the recent days of flooding rains, it
will not take much additional rainfall to cause potential hazards.
The next update to the D4-8 severe weather outlook will be issued
overnight tonight.

Behind Tuesday`s trough, pseudo-zonal flow will dominate the upper
level pattern for the ArkLaTex Wednesday, on which some weaker
disturbances will ride in, bringing a return of showers and storms
late in the week, making for an unsettled end of this extended
forecast period, followed by a cold front which may be deep enough
to break the sustained trend of 80 degree afternoons which will
continue throughout next week, with morning lows generally in the
60s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

For the 14/06Z TAF update, MVFR cigs will predominate across
western terminals especially at the beginning and end of the
period. Southerly surface winds will gain speed through the
daytime hours before gradually slackening by the end of the
period. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  65  86  69 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  85  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  82  61  80  63 /   0   0   0  30
TXK  84  64  83  66 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  84  61  83  64 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  84  65  83  68 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  83  64  84  67 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  85  65  86  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...16