Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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988 FXUS64 KSJT 031755 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1255 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...Severe weather expected again this afternoon and evening... Even with the showers and thunderstorms we`ve seen over the past few days, moisture is still plentiful across the area. Low clouds are already overspreading much of the area early this morning and should stay in place through the mid/late morning before mixing out. As the boundary layer warms through the day, we will see large scale destabilization across the area. With dew points ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s, MLCAPE values by early afternoon will be on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg. Similar to the past few days, shear is still going to be on the more marginal side, especially in the low to mid levels around 30-35 kts. Storms are expected to initiate off of the dryline which should be in the vicinity of the Permian Basin by mid afternoon. Storms will likely go up quickly should remain discrete initially. Very large hail will be the main threat with the initial development along with a subsequent damaging wind threat. While the tornado threat is generally on the low side thanks to weak low level flow, we will have to watch boundary and storm scale interactions as these may be able to enhance local conditions and make tornadic development more favorable (similar to what we saw yesterday). Storms are expected to grow upscale with time, likely becoming a more linear feature where a transition to more of a wind threat is expected. Though, given the favorable thermodynamic profiles, large hail will still remain possible through the duration of the storms lifecycle. These storms will be efficient rainfall producers as noted by Pwat values over 1.25 for nearly the entire area. Though the storms should be moving fast enough to limit flash flood potential, many of our northern and eastern counties are already decently saturated thanks to rain events over the past week or 2 so it won`t take much to potentially create some problems. High temperatures today will range from the lower 80s across the Big Country and Heartland, locations that will remain socked in cloud cover for longer, to the lower 90s in the Concho Valley and along the I-10 corridor. Clouds will rebuild across the area tonight, behind the storms, keeping low temperatures mild in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Severe weather and heavy rainfall will continue to be the main issued through the weekend, ahead of unusually hot conditions for next week. Air mass remains very unstable for Saturday ahead of a weak cold front and a shortwave trough approaching from the west. Most models depict fairly widespread thunderstorm initiation by Saturday afternoon across the Permian Basin and South Plains and then quickly rolling into West Central Texas late in the afternoon and into the evening hours. Widespread convection may end up decreasing the severe threat, but increasing the heavy rainfall threat. Right now, appears the greatest severe threat will be across the Concho Valley west into the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos ahead of the front and in an area that may see a little more sun before the storms develop. By Sunday, multiple rounds of convection may begin to take its toll on the air mass and make it a little harder to destabilize. Widespread convection once again though with the remnants of the frontal boundary draped across the area. Highs may still in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the area. Rainfall totals for Saturday and Sunday will begin to add up, and portions of the area will see very heavy rainfall. Where is the question, and does the heavy rainfall occur on areas that have already seen some decent totals over the last week. No Flash Flood Watch at this point, but after we see where todays convection ends up, we may need to consider something. Main upper level trough pushes across the Southern Plains by Monday afternoon, leaving a ridge aloft to set up across the area. Latest model blends are showing mid to upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday as dry and hot pattern prevails. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Lingering MVFR ceilings will lift/scatter out to VFR within the next hour or two (KABI and KBBD), with VFR prevailing through the afternoon hours. Still expecting strong to severe convection to develop across the area mainly this evening. Timed convection with latest hi-res guidance and may need to refine a bit more based on trends. Convection will end from west to east late this evening, with KBBD and KJCT seeing storms exit by 05Z. Stratus is expected to develop once again after midnight. Highest confidence is currently across the southern terminals and will include MVFR ceilings after 06Z. Convection possible again tomorrow but is expected to hold off until the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 63 79 61 77 / 60 80 90 50 San Angelo 63 86 61 78 / 70 60 90 50 Junction 67 88 64 81 / 30 30 80 60 Brownwood 63 80 62 77 / 40 60 90 60 Sweetwater 63 79 61 75 / 50 80 90 40 Ozona 64 84 62 78 / 50 40 90 50 Brady 65 82 62 76 / 30 60 90 60 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...24