789
FXUS62 KTAE 111732
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
132 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

No major changes to today`s forecast were required. Hourly sky
cover and dew points were tweaked to account for current trends.
The 12Z surface analysis shows that we are now fully post frontal
with the boundary now stretched across the Central Gulf through
the FL Peninsula. A dry airmass continues to work its way further
into the region, which will preclude any precipitation. Although,
light radar returns are apparent this morning, it is likely virga.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Cold front stretches this morning from the Florida panhandle to
southern Georgia with dewpoints falling through the 60s to upper 50s
north of the front with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s south
of this feature in the eastern Big Bend. Expect the front to
continue working south this morning. Dry conditions are expected
this weekend with some increase in high clouds from the west. More
seasonal conditions are on tap with highs in the 80s and lows in the
upper 50s. Dewpoints will continue falling into the 50s so a welcome
reprieve to the typical mugginess is in order.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Fairly benign conditions are expected until Monday afternoon when
the first of several shortwaves is expected to move across the
region. We`ll have increased rain chances Monday afternoon as
southerly return flow gets reestablished along with instability and
upper-level support.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
generally in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The aforementioned shortwave will be the first in a parade of
shortwaves that look to move across the north Gulf states with
several rounds of weather possible throughout the week. Given upper-
level support and good instability and decent low-level shear
there`s a fair chance for multiple rounds of severe weather. Given
the mesoscale nature of these disturbances it`s far too early to get
into specifics, however, once we get into Tuesday and beyond we`re
looking at an active period. Friday`s shortwave looks to be the most
potent, as of right now, with strong dynamics in place for mid-May.
Be sure to come back for updates over the next few days as we
monitor it`s evolution in the model world.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
generally in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A dry post-frontal airmass will make for continued VFR conds thru
this TAF period. Light NW winds turn NE by late tmrw morning.
Thickening upper clouds spread from west to east beginning
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

As of 12Z, a front was analyzed across the Central Gulf through
FL Peninsula. Offshore buoys were reporting NE winds between 10
and 15 kts with seas below 4 ft and a dominant period of 6 sec.

From CWF Synopsis...Weekend boating conditions will be met with
fair weather in the wake of a front before chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase early next week with the potential for
impactful maritime convection on Tuesday. Northerly winds turn
more southerly ahead of the upcoming storm system. Seas respond
with waveheights in the 4 to 6 feet range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Dry conditions are on tap this weekend behind a cold front passage
with winds from the north to northwest as high pressure settles
upstream. Winds will gradually clock around to the south Monday as
that high pressure moves east and a warm front moves from the south
through the area and moisture starts to increase as a result. Rain
and thunderstorms overspread the region Monday and Tuesday. Overall,
dispersions are favorable through the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

In the extended period the WPC is forecasting 3-5 inches
throughout next week. This could introduce some riverine
concerns, however, it`s too far out to say with any degree of
confidence. Most of this precip is expected after Tuesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   59  84  66  85 /   0  10   0  60
Panama City   63  82  68  82 /   0  10  10  70
Dothan        58  82  64  82 /   0  10  10  80
Albany        57  84  64  80 /   0   0  10  70
Valdosta      58  86  65  85 /   0   0   0  60
Cross City    59  86  65  89 /   0  10   0  50
Apalachicola  65  81  71  81 /   0  10   0  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Oliver/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Oliver