123
FXUS62 KTBW 021758
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
158 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Broad upper ridging extends northeastward through the southeast U.S.
and along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. By
Saturday, the upper ridge moves near the Bahamas while weak
troughing moves through the southeast U.S. This will be short-lived
as the ridge builds back in by Monday and continues through most of
next week. On the surface, high pressure near Bermuda ridges
westward over Florida and will dominate the weather pattern through
the week. There will be some minor north/south movements of the
ridge axis during the forecast period as an area of low pressure
moves north of the area over the weekend, but overall this ridge of
high pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the
period. Rain chances will remain on the low side (20-40 percent)
through the period, with the highest chances along the sea breeze
during the afternoon and evening hours. Above average temperatures
are expected with daytime highs topping out in the mid 80`s along
the coast to low 90`s over the interior through the first of next
week. Overnight lows will dip only into the mid 60`s to around 70. A
further warm up is expected by the middle of next week with mid 90`s
possible over the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions with winds less than 10 knots expected
through the forecast period. Rain and storm chances remain on the
low side, so will only hold VCTS at PGD/FMY/RSW from 21-03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

High pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge westward over Florida
and into the Gulf of Mexico and will dominate the weather with
mostly rain-free conditions through the week and into the weekend.
Winds will remain 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making
for pleasant boating conditions through the week. A sea breeze is
expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

High pressure builds in over the area and will dominate the weather
through the period. A slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and
storms will be possible the next few days, primarily over the along
the sea breeze. Some critical RH values are possible over the
interior, but winds are expected to remain below 15 mph, so no Red
Flag Warning will be needed. Some high dispersions will also be
possible on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  91  72  89 /  10  10   0  20
FMY  69  91  69  90 /  30  20  10  30
GIF  67  92  67  91 /  10  10   0  30
SRQ  69  90  70  89 /  20  10   0  20
BKV  64  92  64  90 /  10  10   0  20
SPG  74  88  74  87 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Hubbard