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000
FXUS62 KTBW 141323
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
923 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

After a seasonably cool morning with temperatures in the 40s and
50s across the area, the strong mid April sun angle and clear
skies has already helped boost temperatures mostly into the 60s
at this time. Otherwise, another fantastic day ahead with highs
generally reaching the mid 80s this afternoon, though coastal
areas will be a touch cooler as the afternoon sea breeze moves
inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The upper-level pattern is flattening out as ridging builds in from
the west. The center of a large surface high is situated just off
the west coast of the Florida peninsula, with a light ENE
background flow. Winds have now become light enough that a sea
breeze is expected to begin developing each day.

With a northerly component to the winds, a very dry, stable airmass
continues to be in place across the region. PW values continue to
hover in the lowest 10th percentile and near record lows with this
pattern in play.

There is very little notable change in the pattern for the next
seven days. The ridge will continue to flatten before starting to
amplify over the region again as trough axis propagates east. This
means the surface high will slide east in response, eventually
ushering in more of an ESE flow to warm things up. However, strong
subsidence should suppress activity and keep the moisture that does
return trapped near the surface.

Overall, the expectation is for sunny and warm weather over the next
week, with the next chance for rain unlikely until after next
weekend at the earliest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period with winds out
of the east to start the day. Winds will then switch onshore at
coastal sites in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops with wind
speeds around 5-10 kts before falling to around 5 kts or less
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Seas continue to subside as the energy that contributed to the
strong westerly swell disperses and winds remain light. An onshore
flow is expected to develop each day with the sea breeze, but warm
and dry conditions are forecast across coastal waters through the
week. Seas should remain around 2 feet or less (at times likely less
than 1 foot) through at least the middle of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Critical RH values continue with a dry and stable airmass in place.
However, light winds preclude any significant red flag concerns. No
major changes are anticipated through at least mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  86  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  59  87  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  57  87  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  59  87  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  52  87  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  64  83  66  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Giarratana
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle