Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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800 FXUS62 KTBW 051756 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 156 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 Adequate moisture and heat today will result in some seabreeze shower and storms mainly late this afternoon and into the evening hours. As we go into the work week ridging will start to push overhead. This will help to suppress any shower active that might want to form in the afternoon and evening hours. This will result in hot days without the help of clouds and storms to cool things down. High will slowly climb day to day with the peak being Wednesday through Friday where highs could reach the mid to upper 90`s inland. As we go through the weekend a cold front will push through the area helping to cool temperatures back to average with high in the upper 80`s to around 90 degrees. A few showers will be possible with the front but for the most part models are keeping it dry as it pushes through. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout the period outside of thunderstorms. All sites except LAL should see a seabreeze wind shift by the late afternoon hours if they haven`t already. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible today at most TAF sites in the late afternoon and evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 High pressure will be over the are for Sunday and through the week. This will lead to lighter winds generally staying below 10 kts through the period. The best chance to see any storms will be this evening as storms push off the west coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 Scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms will be possible today. For the work week high pressure will push over the area which will stop any shower activity from developing and helping to dry us out. The driest days look to be Thursday and Friday where RHs look to get into the critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 72 88 73 90 / 20 20 0 10 FMY 69 91 71 91 / 40 20 10 20 GIF 70 92 70 93 / 20 20 0 20 SRQ 70 87 72 90 / 20 10 10 10 BKV 67 90 65 91 / 10 20 0 10 SPG 74 87 75 87 / 20 10 0 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close