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000
FXUS65 KTFX 230225
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
825 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather conditions are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday
with well above normal temperatures. Cooler temperatures return
later in the week with a chance for lower elevation rain and
mountain snow by the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

Current satellite and radar imagery show continue to show areas
of cumulus and decaying showers/virga moving southward into North-
central MT this evening. Any lingering shower activity should
quickly diminish and end with the loss of diurnal heating, but a
weak disturbance looks to maintain variable, mostly mid- and
higher level, cloudiness through the overnight hours. Gusty west
to northwesterly winds over the plains will also continue to
diminish tonight as the responsible low pressure system moves away
from the forecast area. The inherited forecast package is
handling the things reasonably well at this point, so no update
will be necessary at this time. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
542 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024 (23/00Z TAF Period)

Shallow cumulus and even a few light showers over the northern and
eastern portions of North-central MT dissipate by 23/03Z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period
under passing mostly mid- and higher level cloudiness. Gusty west to
northwesterly winds over the plains gradually diminish and then
become more southerly later tonight into Tuesday. Lighter west to
northwesterly breezes over the southwest become light and variable
overnight tonight. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 204 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024/

Today through Tuesday... breezy conditions will continue through the
rest of the day across central and north-central Montana before
tapering off after sunset into the overnight hours. The thunderstorm
risk this afternoon still remains minimal at best for northern
Blaine county. There are some showers that have developed along
Highway 2 that will continue on-and-off for the next couple hours
but, generally, no significant accumulation is expected. Winds on
Tuesday will be much calmer across the region as temperatures
continue to climb into the 60s and 70s for lower elevations and the
40s and 50s for higher elevations. -thor

Wednesday and Thursday...The upper level ridge will become westerly
during this period. Additionally, upper level disturbances will move
from west to east over Southwest MT on both Wed and Thu. This will
result in passing showers over Central and Southwest MT. There is a
low probability of some lightning on Wed, but to low to introduce
into the forecast right now. Wednesday will likely be the warmest
day of the week and likely the next several days as well.

Friday through Monday...A large upper level trof will develop over
the Northern Rockies during this period. The forecast models agree
on it turning cooler over the entire CWA. However, the forecast
models all differ on the amount and type of precipitation that could
fall next Fri thru Sun. Some models have 1 to 2 inches of QPF over
Central and Southwest MT, while other models generally have between
0.25 and 0.50 inches of QPF. Overall, it does look like lower
elevation rain and mountain snow will impact portions of the CWA Fri
and Sat. Right now the heaviest snowfall would occur in the
mountains around Big Sky and Pony, where there is a 60 percent that
snowfall could exceed 8 inches in these areas. The overall
confidence in the weekend precipitation is low, since the forecast
models continue to differ from run to run. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  31  61  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  29  59  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  32  64  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  26  62  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  21  56  25  62 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  29  61  34  68 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  31  63  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  29  57  35  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

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