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000
FXUS64 KTSA 180931
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
431 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A cold front will sweep rapidly southeast across the area from
later this morning through the afternoon. A few showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder may occur across parts of northeast
Oklahoma this morning, but the main action will wait until
afternoon. A broken line of storms is likely to form along the
advancing cold front by mid afternoon before exiting the area
early this evening. Some of the storms will likely be severe, with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Temperatures will
fall quickly following the frontal passage this afternoon, and
north winds will become rather gusty for a few hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Much cooler weather will continue tonight through the upcoming
weekend. Showers and a few thunderstorms will spread back over the
area late Friday into Saturday night, with the majority of the
rain focused across the southern half of the forecast area. Have
trimmed back pops from the NBM, especially in the northern half of
the area, where the latest model trends suggest little or no
rainfall will likely occur.

After a dry and seasonably cool day Monday, unsettled weather will
return for the rest of next week. A weak frontal boundary will
move into the area Tuesday bringing a chance of showers and storms
at that time. Daily shower and storm chances are likely to
continue for the rest of next week, with temperatures close to the
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the evening, before low
ceilings begin to spread back north around 10-12z with widespread
MVFR conditions impacting most sites. A decrease in wind speeds
expected most of the night, though some increase can be expected
by Thursday morning. A strong cold front will arrive in northeast
OK by around 18z Thu, eventually reaching KFSM near 00z. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to fire near the boundary in the
18-20z time frame, with W AR sits along with KMLC most likely to
see impacts. NW winds and low clouds expected behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  46  68  49 /  30   0  10  30
FSM   83  52  69  53 /  60  20  20  50
MLC   82  50  68  52 /  30   0  20  70
BVO   77  43  66  46 /  40   0  10  20
FYV   81  46  67  46 /  60  20  20  40
BYV   82  47  66  47 /  60  30  10  30
MKO   82  48  68  50 /  50   0  20  50
MIO   78  43  65  46 /  50   0  10  20
F10   81  48  68  50 /  30   0  20  60
HHW   83  53  66  53 /  60  40  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14